Email this article Systematic earthquake forecast
- Authors: Gitis V.G.1, Derendyaev A.B.1
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Affiliations:
- Kharkevich Institute for Information Transmission Problems RAS
- Issue: No 4 (2025)
- Pages: 35-49
- Section: Articles
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/0002-3337/article/view/319832
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0002333725040036
- ID: 319832
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Abstract
A computer-based method for systematic earthquake forecasting is discussed. The forecast is calculated regularly and over a fixed time interval. The result is a map of the alarm zone where the epicenters of target earthquakes are expected. A forecast is considered successful if all the epicenters of target earthquakes within the given interval fall into the alarm zone. The minimum alarm area method is used to train the forecast. The method optimizes the probability of a successful forecast with a limited alarm zone. This method also estimates the probability of success for the next forecast interval and explains the alarm zone using logical implication and a list of previous earthquakes with similar precursor values. An example of systematic forecast of Kamchatka earthquakes is presented.
About the authors
V. G. Gitis
Kharkevich Institute for Information Transmission Problems RAS
Email: gitis@iitp.ru
Moscow, Russia
A. B. Derendyaev
Kharkevich Institute for Information Transmission Problems RAS
Email: wintsa@gmail.com
Moscow, Russia
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