Long-period geomagnetic pulsations as solar flare precursors

详细

We compare long-period pulsations of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field at intervals that precede extreme solar flares. To this end, we use the wavelet–skeleton technique to process the geomagnetic field disturbances recorded at magnetic stations over a wide geographical range. The synchronization times of wavelet–skeleton spectral distributions of long-period pulsations of geomagnetic oscillations over all magnetic stations are shown as normalized histograms. A few days before an intense solar flare, the histograms show extremes. This means that these extremes can be regarded as flare precursors. The same technique is used to analyze the parameters of near-Earth space. The histograms obtained in this case are free of the aforementioned extrema and, therefore, cannot point to an upcoming flare. The goal of this study is to construct a correlation–spectral method for the short-term prediction of solar flare activity.