Trends in the development of industrially assimilated renewable energy: the problem of resource restrictions

Аннотация

An analysis of the dynamics of the development of wind and solar energy and potential resource restrictions of the dissemination of these technologies of energy generation associated with intensive use of rare earth metals and some other mineral resources are presented. The technological prospects of various directions of decisions of the problem of resource restrictions, including escalating of volumes of extraction and production of necessary mineral components, creating substitutes of scarce materials and development of recycling are considered. The bottlenecks of each of the above-mentioned decisions were founded. Conclusions are drawn on the prospects of development of the Russian high-tech sectors of the economy in the context of the most probable decisions of the problem of resource restrictions of wind and solar energy. An increase in extraction and production of rare earth metals and some other materials, stimulation of domestic research and development (R&D) to create the permanent magnets of new types and new technologies of wind-powered generation, and reduction of the resource-demand and technology development of recycling the components of power equipment are the most prospective directions of progress. The innovations in these directions will be in demand on the European, Chinese, and North American markets in the near decades due to the end of the life cycle (approximately 30 years) of wind and solar energy projects started at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries (the beginning of exponential growth in plants). The private investors and relevant regional and federal government agencies can use the qualitative characteristics of the dynamics of industrially assimilated renewable energy to choose the most promising investment orientations in energy projects and selection of the most economically sound development methods of energy and related industries.