Short-Term Earthquake Prediction: Reality, Research Promise, or a Phantom Project?

Resumo

The state-of-the-art, obtained results, and possible perspectives of short-term prediction of strong earthquakes are analyzed. Based on examples of specific research it is shown that such prediction with the required detail, accuracy, and reliability has not been carried out as of the present and is not expected to occur in the future. This is a fundamental consequence of the nonlinearity of seismic geodynamic systems that function in deterministic-chaotic manner in the fractal geomedium. The effectiveness of prediction in the form of the ratio between the numbers of successfully predicted and recorded earthquakes within some area is no more than a few percent. Frequent communications about allegedly attained short-term prediction effectiveness of almost 100% are disproven both by the absence of adequate and reliable methods and the steady extension of the list of seismic catastrophes that were not predicted.