Methodological Approaches to Estimation of Land Value upon Change in its Hydro-Amelioration Status

Аннотация

Risk factors in agriculture and forestry are examined in connection with inundation of ameliorated peatlands. Feasibility of peatland rewetting for prevention of wildfires is considered on the example of Ryazan Meshchera. To study risks, a comprehensive approach, combining prediction of ameliorated landscape performance and analytical modeling, is employed. The main hypothesis is related to continuity of natural conditions of these reclaimed lands subject to continuous influence of an artificial drainage network. The analysis of risk factors was performed for the four types of landscape amelioration districts of Ryazan Meshchera: moraine-formed fluvio-glacial plains, interfluvial sandur plains of the Moscow stage, valley sandurs and terraces above the floodplains of the Oka River, and sandur lacustrine plains. The districts were compared according to the degree of their “peatification” (ratio of peatlands to total area), groundwater depth, and extent and density of the open-channel drainage network. It appears that the type four district has the largest fraction of peatlands (60% and more); in the districts of type two and three, peatlands occupy 20–30%. When building an analytical model for assessing change in land value as a result of rewetting of fire-prone peatlands, it is proposed to apply a methodology of applied information economics. This methodology allows quantifying noneconomic factors in the presence of risks and uncertainties. The employed approaches largely involve the Fermi estimate, which is a decomposition of affecting factors into elementary components and estimation of their inherent uncertainties, and the Monte Carlo method, which is numerical modeling of possible scenarios of event developments under artificially generated random events with the probabilities corresponding to that earlier determined by Fermi estimation. It is assumed that, during the implementation of the Wetlands International program aimed to change amelioration status of lands that contain fire-prone peat bogs in the Ryazan part of Meshchera, substantial costs will be incurred not only in rewetting but also in eliminating the damage caused, which can be calculated with the help of the proposed analytical model.