


卷 28, 编号 6 (2017)
- 年: 2017
- 文章: 13
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1075-7007/issue/view/13321
Economic Policy
Finance and credit in the strategy for the economic development and structured investment policy of the Russian Federation
摘要
The article discusses the role and place of finance and credit in the structured investment policy and substantiates possible directions of measures in the sphere of money and finance aimed at accelerating economic growth in Russia.



Macroeconomic Problems
Input–output coefficients in the evaluation of a scientific and technological component of the macrostructural forecasting
摘要
Approaches to the quantitative evaluation of technological development parameters based on input–output coefficients of the input–output table and possibilities of their application in the estimation of quantitative characteristics of scientific and technological forecasts have been considered. This work is a continuation of studies related to the assessment of the influence of the technological coefficient on the economic dynamics.



Import substitution as a complementary strategy
摘要
Import substitution policy in various countries is often used not as an alternative, but rather as a complement to export promotion policy. The article shows that, without such a complement, the outward-oriented strategy is often incapable of ensuring economic growth. The work is based on an analysis of a wide range of the literature on the relationship between export orientation and economic growth, as well as on applying elements of the import substitution strategy in various countries.



Industries and Interindustry Complexes
Environmental hazard assessment and forecast of economic damage from industrial accidents
摘要
Based on the case study of Tuymazinsky District in the Republic of Bashkortostan introduced and tested is a methodology for assessing the environmental hazard of industrial enterprises using integral zoning diagrams. Calculations have been carried out and an algorithm for constructing histograms of environmental damage from emergency situations has been developed. Delineation of the groups of industrial enterprises on the criteria of probability of industrial accidents with environmentally hazardous implications and respective cost of damage incurred is substatiated.



Short-term forecasting of prices for the Russian wholesale electricity market based on neural networks
摘要
The article considers the possibility of using neural networks for the short-term forecasting of electricity prices in the day-ahead market (DAM) based on factors strictly determined for the forecast period. A set of six factors has been determined, which allows an hourly forecast of the DAM price to be constructed for a month in each of the four seasons with a high accuracy. The proposed model shows low average errors in forecasting the price for each hour of the month and in turn allows possible significant price deviations to be anticipated.



Forecasting the impact of economic sanctions on the development of the Russian aircraft industry
摘要
The article has analyzed the prospects for the development of Russia’s aircraft industry in the context of international economic sanctions. It has been shown that the forced localization of the entire technological chain of aircraft production in Russia may lead to the increase in the contribution of the industry to Russia’s GDP. However, since the national labor productivity is lower than the world average, the development of the industry’s production potential would require a significant rise in investment.



On the assessment of the potential expansion of agricultural production and its structural shifts
摘要
This paper deals with retrospective trends in the development of Russian agriculture and the longterm potential for agricultural production growth. Based on this analysis, the importance of adjusting agricultural policy is justified.



Survey of the combined dynamics of prices for pulp and timber
摘要
The results of a survey of the combined dynamics of prices for timber and pulp at Russian timber enterprises, which is mainly of an asynchronous nature, have been given in the article. The need to create vertically integrated structures that combine the mechanical and chemical wood processing has been substantiated in order to provide stability of wood and paper cooperation. Since, in this case, with a drop in the price of, e.g., timber, the pulp will act as a driver of growth and, with a reduction in pulp prices, it will be possible to support the level of production efficiency due to the higher timber prices.



Forecast assumption and analysis of the development of protective afforestation in the Volgograd region
摘要
The article highlights the role of protective forest plantings in stabilizing and improving environmental conditions in the agricultural sector. The science-based approach to the agroforestry practices and the scope has allowed a forecast to be worked out for the development of protective afforestation in the Volgograd region in terms of priorities and action plan.



Financial Problems
Modern problems and development prospects of the Russian budgetary system
摘要
The article describes problems of modern budgetary system of Russia. If these problems have been solved, economic growth could be restored. Suggested measures of budgetary policy have been divided into priority measures, which are affected in the next one or two years, as well as medium-term measures



Social Problems
Features of restructuring mortgage loans nominated in foreign currency
摘要
The article examines the experience of restructuring mortgage loans denominated in foreign currency in 2008–2010 when many borrowers faced difficulties in servicing their loan obligations, and the lack of a culture of working with a problem debt and practical experience in overcoming temporary complex life situations formed hotbeds of acute social conflicts in separate regions.



Regional Problems
Structural changes in employment and the quality of life of the populations of Russian million-plus cities
摘要
This paper considers structural changes in employment and the labor compensation fund of cities with a million-plus population, as well as changes in their role in the economy of the country and regions. It has been shown that the concentration of the population in the largest cities continues to increase, while the nature of changes in their role in manufacturing and retail trade proves to be contradictory. At the same time, Russia and other countries are characterized not so much by the outflow of industry from cities as its transformation. The problems of the social sphere of cities have also been shown.



Economy and Enterprises
Russian enterprises in spring 2017: Slow restoration of investment activity against a background of economic stabilization
摘要
This paper has analyzed and commented on the results of the regular survey of Russian real sector enterprises, which was conducted by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The views of enterprises on the quality of economic policy of federal and regional authorities have been presented. Estimates have been obtained that reflect the dynamics of investment activity of enterprises and the dynamics of investment financing from various sources, as well as the need of enterprises to modernize production. The opinions of enterprises about the desirable dynamics of the ruble exchange rate are given. The current situation with the provision of enterprises with human resources has been reflected. Enterprises’ answers to questions about whether they have territorially detached subdivisions and their use of outsourcing have been considered.


