Mathematical Modeling of the Main Parameters of the North Caspian Shelf Ecosystem under Biological Pollution

Abstract

This paper presents the assessment of a change in the shelf ecosystem state under biological pollution based on a mathematical model of the annual cycle of its main pelagic parameters. The Northern Caspian region was chosen as an example and the impact of invader Mnemiopsis leidyi was taken as a biological pollution. Using the previously calculated annual cycle of the main pelagic parameters of the ecosystem, we decomposed the model, taking into account a new block responsible for the functioning of the invader. Simulations of three predefined scenarios of external conditions showed the effectiveness of the model for solving problems of changes in the ecosystem structure and predicting the consequences of the presence of the aggressive invader.