Fertility Rates in Russian Regions: Convergence or Divergence

Resumo

The paper analyzes changes in fertility rates recorded across the federal districts and regions of Russia over the period from 1990 to 2014. The analysis was based on β- and σ-convergence. It has been shown that differences in fertility rates tended either to decrease or increase in the considered period and were associated with specific events in the country’s socioeconomic development. The patterns were similar at the level of federal districts, but the values of variation were lower. There were no significant patterns of convergence in the Siberian and Ural federal districts, divergence was observed in the Northwestern and Volga federal districts, and the differences in other districts tended to decrease. Demographic policy measures had an appreciable effect on the behavior of the population, but additional measures are needed to reduce interregional differences, since there are “clubs” of regions according to the fertility rate that may negatively interfere with the country’s socioeconomic development. The concluding section of the paper contains recommendations for demographic policy—future measures should be aimed at changing reproductive attitudes in regions with low fertility rates.