Prediction Model for Subway Tunnel Collapse Risk Based on Delphi-Ideal Point Method and Geological Forecast

Abstract

A risk assessment is an effective means of identifying and preventing potential tunnel collapses during construction. The longitudinal wave velocity, burial depth of the tunnel, tunnel span, surroundings, groundwater, and construction factors are selected to build a comprehensive prediction system. The weight of each index is calculated based on the Delphi method. Finally, the risk level for each tunnel section is determined using the ideal point theory. The established prediction model is applied to an actual project to verify its correctness, and the prediction results have good consistency with the actual tunnel. This paper provides a new method for assessing the risk of collapse in subway tunnels.