On population of hazardous celestial bodies in the near-Earth space

Abstract

In recent years, following the Chelyabinsk event of February 15, 2013, the lower size limit for presumably dangerous near-Earth objects has been decreased manyfold (essentially, from 140 m to ~10 m). This has drawn an increased attention to the properties of the population of decameter-sized bodies, in particular, the bodies that approach the Earth from the sunward side (daytime sky). The current paper is concerned with various properties of this population. The properties of the ensemble are analyzed using both observational data from other authors and theoretical estimates obtained by cloning virtual bodies. This question is of great practical importance, as the means for detecting such bodies (for example, the SODA project) need to be developed with consideration for the requirements imposed by the population properties. We have shown that the average rate of entering near-Earth space (NES), i.e., at distances less than ~1 million km from the Earth, for decameter-sized and larger bodies from the daytime sky (elongation values of entry points less than 90°) is approximately 620 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <90° and approximately 220 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <45°.