Construction of confidence regions in the problem of asteroid orbit determination

Abstract

The factors required for estimation of the accuracy of the confidence region construction in the problem of asteroid orbit determination are considered. Blunders and large systematic errors occurring in asteroid observations increase the sizes of confidence regions and cause their noticeable shift in the space of determined parameters. We present the factors that, in addition to analysis of discrepancies (O–C), provide an opportunity to estimate the efficiency of screening observations containing gross systematic errors. The developed factors have been tested for efficiency using simulated observations. The observations have been simulated by parameters set by us and assumed true. It is shown how the sizes of systematic errors and the number of observations with these errors influence the results of screening. All calculations have been performed within the Keplerian model of asteroid motion.