Vol 44, No 3 (2017)

New approaches, methods, and formulas, proposed by the author, are used to study many-year and year-to-year variations of the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff of rivers in Baikal Lake drainage basin. The stationary character of most changes in the annual and maximal runoff (including major Baikal tributaries at the gages nearest to the lake) is demonstrated and the percentage of transient changes in the minimal runoff is shown to be close to the mean world characteristics. Some effects found in Baikal Basin have been generally recorded only in the data of runoff observations in much larger basins or globally: “the law of the power of minus 0.5” for the dependence of the coefficient of variation and the correlation between neighboring years on the mean runoff depth, a fixed structure of the orders of stochastic (autoregression models), the effect of bifurcation of the models of maximal and minimal runoff at the passage from drier to wetter watersheds.

Hydrometric data of recent years were used to evaluate the parameters of distribution of the annual and maximal runoff in the major tributaries of Lake Baikal: the Selenga, Upper Angara, and Barguzin. The estimates of the mean water content, maximal water discharges of spring flood and rain freshets were obtained. The comparison with analogous data of an earlier period often shows significant difference. Variations of the characteristics under consideration are taking place against the background of warming in the region since the early 1970s. The results of the current transformation of river runoff variations is a change in Baikal water regime, which determines the restructuring of hydrological processes in the lake.

The runoff of the Selenga R., the largest tributary of Lake Baikal, in recent two decades corresponds to a low-water period. Such decrease can be due to the global climate processes, which have an effect on the amounts of precipitation onto and evaporation from Selenga drainage basin, which is located in arid climate zone. The adaptation of Ecomag software complex to simulating river runoff in the Selenga Basin based on global databases (relief, soils, vegetation, and weather information) is described. The model was calibrated and verified, and the statistical estimates of calculation efficiency were constructed. The obtained model of runoff formation in the Selenga Basin was used to assess the possible changes in the climate and water regime in the XXI century with the use of data of global climate models under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Throughout the XXI century, the Selenga R. runoff may decrease by 10–40%, depending on the forecasted climate conditions.

For the first time, T,S-analysis was used to determine the specifics of seasonal variations in the vertical structure of Lake Baikal active layer. In the under-ice period, the active layer includes the under-ice, top winter, and upper intermediate water masses. The under-ice water mass, unlike other masses, shows an increase in mineralization to 100.74 mg/kg, which corresponds to a release of 71.1 g salt under 1 m² of water surface in a layer 0–40 m in the process of salt freezing out during ice cover formation and accretion. In the phases of mixing (homothermy), the water masses of the active layer transform into a surface homogeneous mass. In summer and autumn, surface and upper intermediate water masses, separated by a water mass of summer thermocline can be identified. A specific feature of the summer thermocline water mass is the increased sum of ions because of an increase in HCO₃^- concentration at the decay of organic matter accumulating in the bottom part of the thermocline. The existence of the under-ice water mass and the water mass of summer thermocline was established in Lake Baikal for the first time. In the deep-water zone (>250 m), except for the bottom parts, the lower water masses (the lower intermediate and the deep) are permanent, their characteristics remaining stable during the year. The changes in the bottom water mass are due to the character of the processes of bottom water renewal.

New data on under-ice currents in Lake Baikal have been obtained with the use of high-accuracy instruments. The obtained data were used to analyze the time and space variations of under-ice currents, to calculate the coefficients of horizontal turbulent exchange and turbulent energy dissipation rates, and to derive spectral estimates of the obtained results. The estimated structures of the under-ice boundary layer near the Angara opening and far from it (up to 5 km) were compared.

Adaptation of the technology of water turbidity simulation by satellite image data for the delta of the Selenga R., the largest Baikal tributary is given. The results of processing a series of 82 Landsat images are used to assess the seasonal variability of suspended sediment balance in the Selenga delta in period from 1989 up to the present time. It is shown that, at higher water discharges (>1500 m³/s), suspended material will accumulate in the delta (on the average 15% of the total sediment transport at the delta head), governed by material precipitation within inundated floodplain area and lakes in the lower part of the delta. At lower water discharges (<1500 m³/s), a longitudinal increase in suspended sediment transport may take place, caused by setups from Baikal side and channel erosion in the branches.

The extent of the effect of technogenic sources in the Baikal Natural Territory on Lake Baikal water area and coastal zone is assessed. Regional pollution from sources remote from the lake migrates over tens of kilometers in accordance with wind rose and transforms into local in the water protection zone of Lake Baikal. Snow pollution in lake water area has been recorded near the coastal populated localities Listvyanka, Kultuk, Baikal’sk, Slyudyanka, Ust’-Barguzin, Severobaikal’sk, Nizhneangarsk, and at Selenga R. mouth and found to have a local character. The southern depression ranks first in terms of the input of NO₂, NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, F, Al, Na, Ba, Mo, Mn, Pb, Cu, Zn, Sr, Hg, and oil products onto lake water area through the atmosphere. However, larger amounts of SO₄, H₂CO₃, Cl, Ca, Mg, and K falls onto the northern depression, and more Be, V, Cr, and Co falls onto the middle part, because of the operation of coastal enterprises, boiler-houses, TPPs, stove heating, motor-car emissions, and natural transport of dust in low-snow areas. Data on the past 15 years show the pollution to drop by half in the late 1990s and early 2000s because of industrial decline. However, a small increase in regional pollution by individual components could be seen in the recent 5 years.

Mass-spectrometry with inductively coupled plasma was used to determine the element composition of 19 amphipod species, most of which are widespread in the stony littoral of Lake Baikal. Amphipod composition was found to be dominated by Ca > P ≥ S > K ≥ Na > Cl > Mg > Sr ≥ Br ≥ Si. The concentrations of all elements determined in amphipods is greater than the respective concentrations in water. The amphipods were found to concentrate P > Br > Cu > Zn > Cd to the greatest extent relative to the element composition of water and Br > P ≥ I > Ca > S > Cl ≥ As > Sr relative to that of the stone substrate. The concentrations of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Zn, As, Mo, Cd, Pb, and Hg in 2003–2006 in the amphipods of the stony littoral of Baikal was not greater than their concentrations in the amphipods from conventionally non-polluted or weakly polluted aquatic ecosystems. The obtained results can be used as background values in environmental monitoring.

In the under-ice period, gas exchange between Baikal and the atmosphere is taking place through a system of coastal and perennial fractures and airholes in the ice, as well as through the surface of the ice-free part of the lake at the Angara source [24]. The total area of the open water never exceeds 0.03% of lake water area. The emission of CO₂ in the course of ice sublimation over the entire period is ≤0.02 g CO₂ from 1 m². The transport of dissolved gases from under-ice water into the atmosphere is limited by molecular diffusion in microfractions of ice cover. The narrow daily variations of CO₂ in the air in lake coastal zone is due to the effect of populated localities on its coast and large coniferous forests, which serve as diffuse sources of CO₂, as well as diurnal variations of the direction and velocity of air mass transport by local winds.

The optimal boundaries of water level variation range in Lake Baikal have been determined under the conditions of runoff regulation at the Irkutsk HPP and the extremely low water abundance in lake basin in recent years. The properties of the time series of level regime and the characteristics of runoff from its drainage basin have been studied. The formation of long-term dry periods in the region has been studied, and the regularities in level regime variations in the lake have been estimated for both natural and runoff-regulation conditions, and the specifics of runoff regulation and level drawdown in dry years have been considered.