Russian-South Korean Trade Structure Transformation in 2022–2023

The article examines the dynamics of trade between Russia and the Republic of Korea, analyzing its data since 2010 and paying particular attention to the changes that have occurred since 2022. By comparing the current declining trade flows with the statistics of 2015–2016, the author concludes that the drop in trade turnover in 2022 was less significant in percentage terms. The author dissects the transformation of Russian-Korean bilateral trade structure, examining separately energy trade, and also provides his own calculations of trade intensity indices and assesses the reciprocal role of Russia and the Republic of Korea in their foreign trade. The author also identifies the most vulnerable groups of goods that make the Republic of Korea heavily dependent on Russia. Moreover, the main point of the article is the analysis of the role of third countries and parallel imports in the ongoing transformations of trade relations between the countries, viz. the role of some EAEU countries and oil refineries. The reasons for the surge in smartphone and vehicle exports from South Korea to EAEU countries, such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, are obvious. Unlike other unfriendly countries, Russia and the Republic of Korea have developed ‘indirect’, ‘roundabout’ trade routes, and by studying the statistics of these routes it is possible to conclude that the countries currently avoid breaking off trade relations and are still interested in finding ways to continue their economic cooperation despite restrictions and sanctions pressure from Western countries. The author also offers a number of positive and negative factors influencing Russian-Korean economic cooperation under current conditions, both economic and political factors. Maintaining and developing economic relations with the Republic of Korea in the future will ensure access to high-tech equipment and implementation of investment projects in the Far East.

Russia's foreign trade, Republic of Korea, trade relations, parallel imports, energy sources, trade intensity index