Vol 10, No 6 (2016)

This paper describes a method for estimating the predictability of the seismicity rate for volcanic edifices. The mathematical model is a nonlinear second-order differential equation, with our own algorithms for optimization and for estimating predictability. The method is illustrated by the 1964 eruption on Shiveluch Volcano. Calculations showed that the seismicity rate can be predicted with success for a time interval ranging between a few days and a few tens of days during the active phase and between a few tens of days and a few hundreds of days during the decay phase. The level of predictability is rather high, with the prediction distance exceeding the mean error by two to four orders of magnitude. The nonlinear character of both the active phase of the process and of its decay phase is close to the law of an equilateral hyperbola. The method, as developed in this paper, allows a realistic approach to the prediction of that part of the volcanic process which involves brittle deformation and/or rapid displacements of material along the newly arisen cracks.

Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands are home to 36 active volcanoes with yearly explosive eruptions that eject ash to heights of 8 to 15 km above sea level, posing hazards to jet planes. In order to reduce the risk of planes colliding with ash clouds in the north Pacific, the KVERT team affiliated with the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IV&S FEB RAS) has conducted daily satellite-based monitoring of Kamchatka volcanoes since 2002. Specialists at the IV&S FEB RAS, Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SRI RAS), the Computing Center of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CC FEB RAS), and the Far East Planeta Center of Space Hydrometeorology Research (FEPC SHR) have developed, introduced into practice, and were continuing to refine the VolSatView information system for Monitoring of Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands during the 2011–2015 period. This system enables integrated processing of various satellite data, as well as of weather and land-based information for continuous monitoring and investigation of volcanic activity in the Kuril–Kamchatka region. No other information system worldwide offers the abilities that the Vol-SatView has for studies of volcanoes. This paper shows the main abilities of the application of VolSatView for routine monitoring and retrospective analysis of volcanic activity in Kamchatka and on the Kuril Islands.