Variation of natural reproduction parameters and Crow’s indices in different ethnic groups in the two largest megacities of Russia

Abstract

Genetic-demographic parameters of natural reproduction in the most numerous ethnic groups of Moscow and St. Petersburg were assessed on the basis of the 2002 All-Russia Population Census data and other sources. The intensity of intragroup selection due to individual differences in fertility in the cohorts of women born in the 1930s–1950s decreased in all ethnic groups studied. It was concluded that, in both megacities, the relaxation of the selection component due to differential fertility almost stopped: the values of the Crow’s index I_f stabilized at 0.3 < I_f < 0.4, which was associated with relative stabilization of the interfamily variance of fertility. The temporal dynamics of the intensity of intergroup selection due to interethnic differences in fertility rates was more complex. It was only recently that this type of selection came into action, since even at the beginning of the 20th century fertility rates in various ethno-territorial and ethno-confessional groups of the population of the Russian Empire were similar (5–6 offspring per marriage). In the subsequent decades, interethnic differentiation in progeny size increased because the reproductive behavior of different population groups underwent “modernization” with uneven speed. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the intensity of intergroup selection decreased in women birth cohorts of the 1930s–1950s, while it was an order of magnitude lower than the intragroup selection. Currently, the average number of offspring varies among ethnic groups in a narrow range from 1.3 to 1.6. It can be expected that interethnic differences in fertility rates in these megacities will increase again owing to growing numbers of migrants from regions with traditionally high birth rates, resulting in differential natural growth of ethnic groups and the corresponding dynamics of the gene pool of the population.