Development and psychometric assessment of the test “Predictive style”

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Prognostic processes are an important link in adaptation to stressful events and resilience. The role of the features of prognostic abilities in various mental disorders is shown. We introduce and substantiate a new psychological construct, the “Predictive style”, reflecting the subjective importance of the forecasting process and the tendency to assess the favorability of predicted events.

AIM: To develop and conduct a psychometric assessment of the “Predictive style” test.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A “Predictive style” test was developed, including 21 statements divided into 4 scales: excessive optimism, excessive pessimism, excessive forecasting and indifference to forecasts. The development of the test included the study of the external and internal validity, as well as the reliability of the methodology.

RESULTS: The measures of compliance with the test model were at a sufficient level: CFI=0.927; TLI=0.917; SRMR=0.0538; RMSEA=0.0497 (95% CI 0.0403–0.0589) and were performed on a new sample. All items correlated with their scales at a sufficient level. The reliability of the scales was in an acceptable range: Kronbach α=0.851–0.630. Retest reliability was confirmed after 2 months. Convergent validity was demonstrated by correlations with levels of optimism, pessimism, anticipation, predictive ability and coping strategies. Statistically significant differences were found between the groups of patients with neurotic mental disorders and those without psychopathology. Multiple linear regression demonstrated that the test scales were statistically significant predictors of anxiety and depression symptoms in the study participants. The results obtained confirm the criteria validity of the test under development.

CONCLUSION: The developed test has sufficient psychometric indicators and can be used in subsequent studies.

About the authors

Alexander S. Granitsa

Kazan Federal University

Author for correspondence.
Email: hebechblu@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0498-7397
SPIN-code: 4775-7844

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Assoc. Prof., Depart. of Neurology with courses in Psychiatry, Clinical Psychology and Medical Genetics

Russian Federation, Kazan

Adelina R. Lotfullina

Kazan Federal University

Email: lotfullinaadelina2001@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0001-0510-9625

Student, Faculty of Medicine

Russian Federation, Kazan

Vlada V. Perishivkina

Kazan Federal University

Email: vlada.pereshivkina@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0009-0008-4366-7290

Student, Faculty of Medicine

Russian Federation, Kazan

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Correlations of “Predictive Style” Test scales 2 months apart; БП — indifference to forecasts; Ипр — over forecasting; ИП — excessive pessimism; ИО — excessive optimism.

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3. Fig. 2. Correlation of the “Predictive Style” test with the dispositional optimism test. Shows statistically significant correlations. The dotted line shows inverse correlations. ИО — excessive optimism; ИП — excessive pessimism.

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4. Fig. 3. Correlation of the scales of the “Predictive Style” test with the scales of the TAS/PC anticipatory consistency test and the predictive ability test. The figure shows statistically significant correlations. The dotted line shows inverse correlations. БП — indifference to forecasts; ПАС — spatial anticipatory consistency; ИПр — over forecasting; ОАС — general anticipatory competence; ИО — excessive optimism; ЛСАС — personal-situational anticipatory competence; ИП — excessive pessimism; ВАС — temporary anticipatory consistency.

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5. Fig. 4. Correlation of the “Predictive Style” test scales with the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire and “Lazarus Coping Test” scales. The figure shows statistically significant correlations. The dotted line shows inverse correlations. БП — indifference to forecasts; Ипр — over forecasting; ИП — excessive pessimism; ИО — excessive optimism.

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