Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence Trends in Altai Krai Focusing on the Impact of Papillary Microcarcinomas on Morbidity Structure

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In recent years, the incidence of thyroid cancer has been increasing, primarily due to the rising detection of papillary microcarcinomas (T1a). However, the mortality rates have not declined. This study is devoted to evaluate trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Altai Krai, with a particular focus on the T1a subcategory.

AIM: The work aimed to study the trends of thyroid cancer incidence in Altai Krai in 2014–2023, with a focus on tumors at the papillary microcarcinoma stage (T1a), including their recurrence rates.

METHODS: Data from the regional cancer registry were used. Incidence rates, stage distribution, histological structure, and recurrence rates were assesed. The data were than compared to those from across Russia, along with the international data on active observation.

RESULTS: The incidence rate in the region was 3–4 times higher than the average rate in Russia. Stage T1 accounted for 66.4% of cases, with T1a representing 36.1%. The recurrence rate of papillary microcarcinomas remained below 4%, with a declining trend reaching 0.35% in 2023.

CONCLUSION: The high proportion of early-stage tumors and the low recurrence rate of papillary microcarcinomas highlight the potential for incorporating active surveillance strategies into Russian clinical practice.

About the authors

Irina M. Zakharova

Altai State Medical University; Altai Regional Oncology Dispensary

Author for correspondence.
Email: zaxarova270494@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2225-619X
SPIN-code: 2550-6903
Russian Federation, Barnaul; Barnaul

Alexander F. Lazarev

Altai State Medical University

Email: lazarev@akzs.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1080-5294
SPIN-code: 1161-8387

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Barnaul

Valentina D. Petrova

Altai State Medical University

Email: valent_04@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7169-9646
SPIN-code: 2941-6649

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine)

Russian Federation, Barnaul

Dmitry I. Ganov

Altai State Medical University

Email: ganovdmit@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7118-1668
SPIN-code: 2100-7576

MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Barnaul

Svetlana A. Terekhova

Altai State Medical University

Email: asmu.oncology@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0001-4594-4529
SPIN-code: 7564-1647

MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)

Russian Federation, Barnaul

Nina V. Trukhacheva

Altai State Medical University

Email: tn10@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7894-4779
SPIN-code: 3515-5231

Cand. Sci. (Pedagogy), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Barnaul

Julia A. Antonova

Altai State Medical University

Email: antonovaj_18@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0004-8885-2730
SPIN-code: 7946-2299
Russian Federation, Barnaul

Elizaveta K. Semeryanova

Altai State Medical University

Email: liiikaaaaz@mail.ru
SPIN-code: 1937-2194
Russian Federation, Barnaul

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Supplementary files

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1. JATS XML
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2. Fig. 1. Dynamics of crude thyroid cancer incidence rates in the Russian Federation and Altai krai, 2014–2023.

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3. Fig. 2. Dynamics of thyroid cancer case distribution by stage in Altai krai, 2014–2023.

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4. Fig. 3. Dynamics of diagnosed cases and mortality from thyroid cancer (C73) in Altai Krai, 2014–2023.

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5. Fig. 4. Dynamics of Thyroid Cancer Recurrences in Altai Krai, 2014–2023.

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