Email this article Solar cycle 24 from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics
- Authors: Ogurtsov M.G.1,2
-
Affiliations:
- Ioffe Physicotechnical Institute
- Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
- Issue: Vol 42, No 3 (2016)
- Pages: 204-206
- Section: Article
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1063-7737/article/view/189580
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S106377371603004X
- ID: 189580
Cite item
Open Access
Access granted
Subscription Access
Abstract
The predictions of the maximum yearly mean sunspot number in the current cycle 24 made by means of the astrophysical approach (by analyzing the instrumental data on solar activity and using various dynamo models) and the paleoastrophysical approach (by analyzing the paleoreconstructions of solar activity spanning the interval from 8555 BC to 1605 AD) are compared. The paleoastrophysical predictions are shown to be considerably more accurate. The amplitude of the next cycle 25 is predicted. It is shown that from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, cycle 25 will most likely be of medium power, Rmax(25) = 85.0 ± 30.5.
Keywords
About the authors
M. G. Ogurtsov
Ioffe Physicotechnical Institute; Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
Author for correspondence.
Email: maxim.ogurtsov@mail.ioffe.ru
Russian Federation, ul. Politekhnicheskaya 26, St. Petersburg, 194021; Pulkovskoe sh. 65, St. Petersburg, 196140
Supplementary files
