Meridional component of the large-scale magnetic field at minimum and characteristics of the subsequent solar activity cycle

Abstract

The polar magnetic field near the cycle minimum is known to correlate with the height of the next sunspot maximum. There is reason to believe that the hemispheric coupling can play an important role in forming the next cycle. The meridional component of the large-scale magnetic field can be one of the hemispheric coupling indices. For our analysis we have used the reconstructed data on the large-scale magnetic field over 1915–1986. We show that in several cycles not only the height but also the general course of the cycle can be described in this way about 6 years in advance. This coupling has been confirmed by the currently available data from 1976 to 2016, but the ratio of the meridional field to the total absolute value of the field vector has turned out to be a more promising parameter. In this paper it was calculated at a height of ∼70 Mm above the photosphere. The date of the forthcoming minimum is estimated using this parameter to be mid-2018; using the global field as a forecast parameter gives a later date of the minimum, early 2020.