Modeling the Bioclimatic Range of Tall Herb Communities in Northeastern Asia

Abstract

Modeling of the bioclimatic niches of the complex of tall herb communities in the current and predicted climatic conditions by 2070, as well as in the conditions of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (about 21 thousand years ago), has been performed. The most important bioclimatic parameters controlling the geographical distribution of tall herbs are the amount of snow precipitation (snow depth), Kira’s warmth and coldness indices, and the continentality index. Under the conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum, bioclimatic refugia of tall herbs could be preserved on the Kuril Islands, but were absent on Sakhalin Island and Kamchatka Peninsula. Current trends of climate change will lead to an increase of the area suitable for tall herb communities in the Russian Far East, but will reduce their distribution in Japan.