Changes in Indicators of Temperature Extremes in the 21st Century: Ensemble Projections for the Territory of Russia

Abstract

The study considers the problem of constructing a scenario forecast of changing climatic characteristics of air temperature extremes which are important for the current economy needs. Based on the numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution system of models, the probabilistic estimates of future changes in the applied indices of rare temperature extremes over Russia are obtained. Particular attention is given to the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty of the estimates obtained in the middle and the end of the 21st century. The important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed extreme parameters are identified; they should be taken into account when adapting to climate changes at the regional level.