Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Forestry in Russia

Abstract

The projection of economic consequences of climate change for forestry in the subjects of the Russian Federation is obtained for the end of the 21st century. The assessment is based on the numerous high-resolution ensemble simulations of climate change. Due to the expected increase in forest productivity, the stock of coniferous and deciduous woods will grow thus increasing wood cost. An increase in total expenses for forest fire extinction is expected by the end of the century as a result of climate-related changes in fire danger in the Russian Federation subjects. The economic assessment of possible damage due to wildfires shows that the average total cost of forest fire management in Russia can increase under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios by 211114 and 248956 thousand rubles. The most significant increase in the costs of forest fire management is projected in the Tyumen and Arkhangelsk oblasts and in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous okrug-Yugra.