Peculiarities of Long-term Variability of Surface Water Inflow to Lake Baikal

Abstract

The paper analyzes long-term changes in the water inflow to Lake Baikal which have occurred since the early 20th century and have been transformed due to the global warming intensification since the 1970s. The differences in distribution parameters and in the values of the inflow of estimated probabilities are studied for the full series and for its two parts divided as of1971. The revealed increase in the wintertime inflow is caused by the cold period duration reduction and by the permafrost degradation resulting from the air temperature rise. Since 1996 inflow has decreased, which is associated not only with precipitation reduction but also with evaporation increase. The Selenga River, the largest tributary of Lake Baikal, demonstrates the greatest decrease in runoff among the Baikal rivers.