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Vol 41, No 5 (2016)

Article

Surface temperature response to variations in atmospheric albedo: Estimating the radiation effect

Korneva I.A., Semenov S.M.

Abstract

The one-layer radiation atmospheric model with SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) database for 1984-2007 was used to obtain the estimation of variations in the distribution of surface temperature for a case of general increase in atmospheric albedo by 1%, that is, surface temperature decreases by 1°C on average on the globe.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):307-311
pages 307-311 views

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

Vetrov V.A., Borisova O.K., Velichko A.A.

Abstract

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):312-325
pages 312-325 views

Description of radiation conditions and evaluation of the date of 137Cs release to the atmosphere using the radionuclide transfer model coupled with the forecasts by the mesoscale hydrodynamic model

Rubinshtein K.G., Smirnova M.M., Ignatov R.Y., Gubenko I.M., Arutyunyan R.V., Pripachkin D.A., Semenov V.N., Sorokovikova O.S., Shershakov V.M.

Abstract

The estimates of 137Cs emissions from the accident happened in Elektrostal at the beginning of April 12, 2013 are presented. The transport of radionuclides and their dry and wet deposition on the surface are computed using the Lagrangian stochastic model of the NOSTRADAMUS software package worked out by Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences. Prognostic fields of wind (horizontal and vertical components) in the lower troposphere, precipitation, and vertical and horizontal turbulence diffusivity coefficients in the lower atmosphere (up to 4 km) were used as input data. Prognostic fields were obtained using the WRF-ARW numerical mesoscale model.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):326-334
pages 326-334 views

Estimating by inverse modeling the release of radioactive substances (133Xe, 131I, and 137Cs) into the atmosphere from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Babukhina T.I., Gan’shin A.V., Zhuravlev R.V., Luk’yanov A.N., Maksyutov S.S.

Abstract

The estimate of the release of radioactive substances (133Xe, 131I, and 137Cs) into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster is presented. It was obtained using the FLEXPART Lagrangian dispersion model and the data of local ground-based measurements of radiation dose rate. The computation period covers the active phase of the nuclear disaster that lasted 20 days after the tsunami. To get the quantitative characteristics of emissions of radioactive substances, the inverse modeling based on the Bayesian approach is used. The emissions were estimated for three altitudes. The total emissions are equal to 2.1 + 0.4 kg (14 000 + 2700 PBq) for 133Xe, (3.8 + 0.4) x 10-2 kg (174 + + 18 PBq) for 131I, and 5.7 + 1.2 kg (18 + 4 PBq) for 137Cs that is consistent with the results of other studies. Retrieved emissions were used to provide the forward modeling for mapping the areas of radionuclide deposition. The developed method of retrieving the emission of radioactive substances makes a useful instrument that operationally estimates and localizes the areas of potential pollution in case of nuclear accidents and could be used for making decisions on the population evacuation.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):335-343
pages 335-343 views

Verification of the multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs

Krylov A.L., Nosov A.V., Kiselev V.P.

Abstract

A multi-chamber model of radioactivity migration in reservoirs was developed. It describes transport of radioactive substances in water and in bed sediments taking into account sorbtion of radionuclides on suspended particles. The model provides higher resolution than simplified chamber models do. At the same time, unlike complex two- or three-dimensional dynamic models, it does not require hard-to-obtain data such as detailed data on bathymetry, currents and winds. The model was included into the Sybilla program code that was developed in the framework of the Rosatom project called PRORYV. The model was verified against the observed data on the contamination of the Kiev Reservoir with 137Cs in 1986.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):344-350
pages 344-350 views

Evaluation of significance of spray evaporation in the atmospheric surface layer for computing the trajectory and intensity of tropical cyclones

Novitskii M.A., Petrichenko S.A., Tereb L.A.

Abstract

The results are presented ofcomputation oftrajectory and intensity oftwo typhoons in 2012 for two groups of parameterization schemes of ocean-atmosphere energy exchange in tropical cyclones (TCs), boundary and surface layers of TCs, radiation fluxes, microphysics, and convection. The surface layer computations were carried out with and without the relationships that take into account the surface layer cool ing due to spray evaporation. It is demonstrated that the accounting of this effect exerts positive influence on the results of TC trajectory modeling at different stages. Ifthere are specific features in TC movement, for example, the loop formation, this improvement may be crucial. The accuracy ofthe results of computation of TC intensity increases as well.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):351-357
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Estimation of aerosol deposition rate from the data of geochemical studies and atmospheric radioactive pollution monitoring

Kondrat’ev I.I.

Abstract

The aerosol deposition rate is computed for some chemical elements from the resuits of studies on the elemental composition of atmospheric aerosol and snow cover in the background and anthropogenic areas in the Primorskii krai as well as for the radionuclide 137Cs and suspended matter from the data of atmospheric radioactive pollution monitoring. Taking into account the differences in sampling methods, the rather close values of deposition rate were obtained for chemical elements and radionuclide.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):358-364
pages 358-364 views

Instruments, Observations, and Processing

Remote and in situ measurements of aerosol concentration in the Arctic troposphere from the Yak-42D “Roshydromet” research aircraft

Markov R.M., Romanovskii A.M., Khattatov V.U., Kirin D.V., Malinina E.P., Kuz’michev A.S., Babukhina T.I., Gan’shin A.V., Luk’yanov A.N.

Abstract

The results are presented of measurements of aerosol content at different heights in the Arctic troposphere in the area of Naryan-Mar city and the Yamal Peninsula on June 24, 2014 using in situ and remote instruments installed on the Yak-42D "Roshydromet" research aircraft. The maximum aerosol content was detected in the layer up to 3000 m, and the aerosol concentration in the troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula is higher than that in the area of Naryan-Mar by 100 times. The in situ aircraft instrument measured the number concentration of black carbon particles in the tropospheric aerosol. To identify the sources of aerosol in the Arctic troposphere during airborne measurements the air mass trajectory analysis was performed. Simulations were conducted using the TRACAO trajectory model and FLEXPART particle dispersion model. The possible contribution of long-range and local transport of industrial pollutants to the Arctic troposphere was analyzed. The air mass transport was simulated using the trajectory model. Model computations of aerosol concentration in the troposphere using the satellite data on the gas flaring incite that the high content of black carbon in the lower troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula was caused by its transfer from the oil-producing areas located on the adjoining territory of Russia. The contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from industrial enterprises in Western Europe to the Arctic area under study was insignificant in the period under consideration.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):365-372
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Reviews and Consultations

Ozone content over the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2016

Zvyagintsev A.M., Ivanova N.S., Nikiforova M.P., Kuznetsova I.N., Vargin P.N.

Abstract

The review is compiled on the basis ofthe operation ofthe total ozone (TO) monitoring system of the CIS and Baltic countries that functions in the operational regime at the Central Aerological Observatory. The monitoring system uses the data from the national network equipped with M-124 filter ozonometers under methodological supervision of the Main Geophysical Observatory. The quality of the functioning of the entire system is under operational control based on the observations obtained from the OMI satellite equipment (NASA, the United States). The basic TO observation data are generalized for each month of the first quarter of 2016 and for the quarter as a whole. The data of routine observations of surface ozone content carried out in the Moscow region and Crimea are also presented.

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016;41(5):373-378
pages 373-378 views