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Vol 42, No 1 (2017)
- Year: 2017
- Articles: 9
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1068-3739/issue/view/14234
Article
Forecasting hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones in Russia
Abstract
In contrast to the common opinion, hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones are a quite frequent phenomenon followed by huge damage, especially in densely populated areas. This phenomenon has been poorly studied and is hardly predictable so far. The features of hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones, and the similarity and difference in their structure as compared to those in tropical cyclones are revealed.
1-8
Forecasting mesoscale convective systems in the Urals using the WRF model and remote sensing data
Abstract
The results are presented ofmodeling the formation and evolution ofmesoscale convective systems (MCS) accompanied by severe weather events over the territory of the Western Urals by the WRF-ARW numerical model of the atmosphere. Twenty-three cases of mesoscale convective complexes and mesoscale squall lines are considered for 2002-2015. The Terra/Aqua MODIS data, the data of weather radars installed in Perm and Izhevsk, and the data from the Roshydromet observation network were used to verify the model forecasts. It is demonstrated that the parameters of MCS intensity are simulated by the model with high reliability; however, the quality of the forecast of the spatial position of MCS is unsatisfactory in most cases. It is revealed that the model grid spacing strongly affects the forecast skill scores. In some cases the model successfully simulates the formation and evolution of MCS accompanied by severe weather events and can be used for their short-range forecast with the time accuracy of ±(1-2) hours.
9-18
Interrelations between the atmospheric electric field, air pressure, and hydrogeological processes
Abstract
The rise of the level of aquifers enhances soil radon transport that causes the decay of the atmospheric electric field. The decrease in aquifer levels provides the opposite effect. The aquifer level rise may be caused by precipitation infiltration, hydrofracturing, and air pressure drop. The reasons for the aquifer level decline are the pumping of artesian water and air pressure rise.
19-26
A compact form for the analytic description of temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure over plane surfaces of water and ice
Abstract
A possibility is studied of extending the range of action of the simple three-parameter formula (ITS-90 scale) proposed in the previous work of the author [2] for the dependence of saturation vapor pressure E on temperature T within the range of 250 to 490 K. The results demonstrated that the dependence ln[E(T)/E(Tbas)] = (T - Tbas)[A - B(T - Tbas) + C(T - Tbas)2]/T with four sets of coefficients A, B, and C obtained using one base temperature Tbas equal to the temperature of triple point of water Tt = 273.16 K and two additional base values Tbas2 = 473.16 K and Tbas3 = 623.16 K makes it possible to approximate rather accurately the initial experimental and computed data in the temperature range from the point of homogeneous freezing of 235 K to the critical temperature of 647 K for liquid water and from 193 K to Tt for ice. A procedure used for obtaining the inverse function T(E) by solving the third-degree algebraic equation is validated. A hypothesis is proposed for the physical substantiation of additional base points in the form of “a noticeable appearance of dimers at the point Tbas2 and their 100% concentration at the temperature Tbas3.”
27-37
Long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable 8°C crossing in average daily air temperature in the Volga Federal District
Abstract
Physical principles are considered of asynchronous long-period relationships between the thermal state of the North Atlantic and the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in spring and autumn in the Volga Federal District. The methodology and the results are discussed of testing the informativeness of the fields of sea surface temperature anomalies for long-range forecasting of the dates of the stable average daily air temperature crossing 8°C in the district.
38-45
Semidiurnal frequency of the fields of the Arctic ice rarefaction and compression from the MTVZA-GYa satellite radiometer data
Abstract
The spatiotemporal variability is considered ofthe field of ice rarefaction and compression in the Arctic due to the passage of semidiurnal tidal waves. A simplified method is developed for identification of such fields on the maps of the scattering index (SI) of ice computed from the MTVZA-GYa radiometer data. It is demonstrated that the low and high values of ice SI are ob served at tidal rarefactions and compressions, respectively. The analysis of the maps of extreme values of SI observed in overlapping semidiurnal and diurnal MTVZA-GYa measurements corroborated the existence of semidiurnal periodicity of alternating fields of the Arctic ice rarefaction and compression and revealed no variability in ice SI in the areas where tidal wave phases converge (there the convergence amplitude is minimum).
46-53
Concentration of 18O in precipitation over Moscow in 2014
Abstract
The series of δ18O values is presented for all precipitation events in Moscow in 2014. Precipitation samples were taken at the observation site of the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU MO), and the isotopic analysis was carried out in the isotopic laboratory of the Department of Geography of MSU. The concentration of stable 18O in precipitation over Moscow in 2014 varied from -0.09 to -26.29‰. The maximum amplitudes of δ18O were registered in March-April and October. The pronounced interrelation was revealed between the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation and surface air temperature (the correlation coefficient is 0.85). The computation of back trajectories of air masses and the analysis of weather charts demonstrated that the most isotopically light precipitation is typical of relatively cold air masses slowly moving over the continent during the last five days before precipitation. In this case, the ongoing condensation leads to the progressive isotopic depletion of precipitation (more and more isotope-depleted precipitation is registered). On the contrary, fast air transport from the middle and even from high latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean leads to the relatively constant of δ18O values of precipitation.
54-63
Chemical composition of precipitation and snow cover in the Primorsky krai
Abstract
The chemical composition ofprecipitation from May 2012 to March 2013 and snow cover in the south of the Primorsky krai are studied. The measured parameters are pH and the concentration of principal ions, dissolved organic carbon, silicon, and metals in the samples of precipitation and snow cover taken in Vladivostok and in the background area of the Sikhote-Alin mountain range. Data from Primorskaya, Ternei, and Sadgorod stations are presented for comparison.
64-70
Identification of the optimal integration of the hydrologic model with meteorology data using the advanced GIS object-oriented programming
Abstract
An object-oriented framework called GIS and Hydrologic Information System Modeling Object (GHISMO) that is tightly coupled with a prototype geographic information system (GIS), is presented in this research. The proposed GHISMO framework is used to simulate a hydrologic system on the base of the storage-release concept and with multiple weather data such as gage and NEXRAD data. Both quantitative and qualitative results of simulation for the Pleasant Run Creek and Little Buck Creek watersheds in Indiana (USA) demonstrate the method prospects.
71-76