Vol 42, No 8 (2017)

The results of experiments on the integration of synoptic and hydrodynamic forecasts of monthly air temperature for the northwestern part of Eurasia for the period of 2011–2015 are presented. The comprehensive comparison of skill scores of individual and integrated forecasts is provided. It is demonstrated that during the cold season hydrodynamic forecasts have the highest skills among the other forecasts. It is revealed that empirical methods are characterized by the forecast skill increase in summer and by its decrease in winter and during the period of spring transformation of atmospheric circulation. In most cases the integration of diverse methods allows combining their benefits and improving the resultant forecast skill. The synchrony was detected in the forecast skill variations. It is shown that the forecast skill mainly depends on the persistence of macrocirculation patterns.

The reanalysis ofthree-dimensional fields of water temperature and velocity ofcurrents in the Black Sea in January–March in 1971–1991 is used for studying the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature, heat content of the upper layer, and heat fluxes on the sea surface near the Caucasian coast and the southern coast of Crimea. It is demonstrated that a warm current in the upper layer of the sea and the high values of the heat flux from the sea to the atmosphere are observed in these areas in winter. The possible effect of the above features on the interannual variability of winter air temperature in Sochi and Yalta is assessed.

The mechanism of smoke haze formation over the European part of Russia (EPR) in the summer of 2016 is analyzed using satellite measurements, ground-based observations, reanalysis data, and trajectory modeling. The analysis reveals that smoke in the atmosphere over EPR with the aerosol optical depth increase up to 3 was caused by the long-range transport of combustion products from Siberian wildfires. The increase in the concentration of smoke aerosol in the atmosphere over EPR was accompanied by the increase in the concentration of carbon monoxide in the air. The long-range atmospheric transport of the products of pyrogenic emission from east to west for a distance up to 5000 km with the speed of 5–6 m/s predominantly occurred in the lower troposphere. The peculiarities of tropospheric circutation over Northern Eurasia in July 2016 are identified which were responsible for the transport of combustion products in the troposphere for thousands of kilometers in the direction opposite to the westerlies that prevail in the mid-latitudes.

Emissions from Russian domestic civil aviation for the period of 2000–2012 are assessed for the following gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. The integrated assessment of their impact on the climate system is performed using the values of the global warming potential. The CO₂ equivalent was used as a common measure of emissions. It is established that the modern impact of Russian civil aviation on the Earth climate is insignificant.