Vol 43, No 10 (2018)

Long-term changes in peak spring runoff and daily minimum winter and summer-autumn runoff in the Volga River basin are analyzed based on observational data from 94 gaging stations. It is revealed that climate changes in the basin during the period from the late 1970s till the middle of the 1980s led to the significant increase in minimum discharge, but maximum runoff changed ambiguously. The regions with the disturbed uniformity of the series of extreme values of river runoff are identified. Changes in the values of high runoff, above the 10% probability, and low runoff, below the 90% probability, are analyzed for current climate conditions. Under nonstationary conditions, it is recommended to assess the probability characteristics of extreme runoff with compound distribution curves or based on the Bayesian approach.

The regularities of changes in the parameters of the hydrological regime of the Lower Volga are considered using data of routine observations at gaging stations and data of field studies carried out by the specialists of Zubov State Oceanographic Institute in 2006–2017. The main modern trends are revealed for runoff and water level, water temperature, and ice phenomena as well as for the duration of flooding of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain during the spring flood. The parameters are compared for natural and regulated Volga River runoff conditions. It is shown that considerable variation in the duration of flooding of floodplains, in water temperature, and heat flow during the spring flood under modern conditions is caused both by runoff operation and by increase in the anthropogenic load on the area of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain in the recent decades.

The characteristics of storm surges obtained from sea level observations at four hydrometeorological stations in the North Caspian Sea for 2003–2017 are presented. The sea level that by 30 cm exceeds the monthly mean value at the analyzed point of the Caspian Sea was considered as a surge. In total, 370 surges were registered, 83% of them occurred during the cold season (September-April). The maximum surge height was 125 cm, the longest duration was 7 days. The most significant surges on Tyulenii Island were simulated with the operational hydrodynamic model of the sea level and currents of the Caspian Sea using atmospheric forcing from the COSMO model. The mean coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed sea level is equal to 0.94.

The variability ofthe level and area ofthe Caspian Sea during the Late Glacial Maximum and Holocene is analyzed. It is found that sea level variations during the period of quasisteady Holocene climate can be represented as a result of the accumulation of small anomalies in the water regime, i.e., as a manifestation of the self-developing system. The model of the Caspian Sea water balance was used to test this hypothesis. Empirical data on various-scale sea level variations are presented, and an attempt to explain their nature is made. The origin of large transgressions and regressions is analyzed.

The distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and chlorophyll a in the Caspian Sea water column from April to November in 2008–2016 is analyzed. It is shown that the spatiotemporal variability of SPM concentration is defined by its sources, especially by the autochthonous (primary production) and allochthonous (particulate river runoff, aerosols) components. The effect of marginal filters of rivers on the volume of coming allochthonous SPM is considered. It is revealed that chlorophyll a is a reliable marker of the autochthonous component of SPM and biogenic sedimentation conditions. The stable vertical stratification defines the distribution of allochthonous and autochthonous SPM in the water column. Vertical profiles of these SPM components in the active layer (its thickness is usually up to ~60 m, more rarely to ~100 m) of the sea are similar in April and October-November and differ much in May-September.