Vol 43, No 11 (2018)

The results of studies in the area ofnumerical weather prediction and climate theory are presented. These results were obtained by the team of researchers of the Siberian school of mathematical modeling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics established by academician G.I. Marchuk. Academician V.P. Dymnikov played an enormous role in the development of this school by enriching it with new approaches and ideas. His contribution to the Siberian school of mathematical modeling was most strongly pronounced concerning three problems: numerical weather prediction for the Siberian region, the modeling of the climate system dynamics, and the mathematics and theory of climate.

The linear hydrodynamic instability of the spatially periodic system of updrafts and downdrafts in a stably stratified atmosphere is studied. Such formulation of the problem is used to simulate the cloud systems observed in the atmosphere, when the zones of updrafts correspond to clouds and those of downdrafts correspond to intercloud intervals. A rather unexpected conclusion was made that the consideration of turbulent viscosity and thermal conductivity of the atmosphere as well as of radiative cooling leads to the instability at the Richardson numbers exceeding the critical value of 1/8 for the nondissipative case.

Studies dealing with impact of the Arctic warming and related sea ice decline on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation are considered. The causes of occurrence of extremely cold winters over the mid-latitude continents observed in the recent decades against the warming background are discussed. Several conceptions are outlined which explain potential reasons for occurrence of this phenomenon. The paper discusses impacts of the Arctic sea ice loss on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, oscillations of planetary waves. It also discusses issues related to sea ice changes in the Barents and Kara seas and their link to the frequency of extremely cold winters observed in Eurasia and North America, the contribution of internal atmospheric variability to the increasing frequency of cold weather, and the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Arctic sea ice reduction.

The low-frequency variability of sea surface temperature and salinity in the Arctic is analyzed using the data of the 1200-year preindustrial experiment with the INM-CM5 climate model developed in the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences. It is shown that the leading variability pattern is a regular coupled oscillation of temperature and salinity with the period of about 50 years. The empirical method based on the fluctuation-dissipation theorem was applied to evaluate influence functions which provide the optimum excitation of this oscillation phases. It is demonstrated that salinity anomalies are the main driver of this variability. The time of potential predictability of sea surface temperature and salinity was determined using the analog method, it equals about six years for 15-year means. The main source of long-term predictability is the spatial pattern associated with the leading mode of low-frequency variability of the analyzed parameters in the Arctic.

The simulation of stratosphere-troposphere dynamic coupling is considered in five 50-year realizations of ensemble calculations with the 5th version of the INM-CM5 climate model developed in the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences. The model also includes the ocean model and the improved vertical resolution in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

In this article the true affiliation is

A. V. Bazarov^a*, N. B. Badmaev^{b, c}, S. A. Kurakov^{d, e,}and B.-M. N. Gonchikov^b

^aInstitute of Physical Materials Science, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Sakh’yanovoi 6, Ulan-Ude, 670047 Russia

^bInstitute of General and Experimental Biology, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Sakh’yanovoi 6, Ulan-Ude, 670047 Russia

^cBuryat State University, ul. Smolina 24a, Ulan-Ude, 670047 Russia

^dInstitute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, pr. Akademicheskii 10/3, Tomsk, 634055 Russia

^eTomsk State University of Control Systems and Radio-electronics, pr. Lenina 40, Tomsk 634055 Russia

^*e-mail: alebazaro@gmail.com

Received June 27, 2016

In this article techical mistakes were found. Below the correct variant of the table on page 273 is provided.