


Vol 44, No 4 (2019)
- Year: 2019
- Articles: 11
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1068-3739/issue/view/14302
Article
The Arctic Climate Warming and Extremely Cold Winters in North Eurasia during 1979–2017
Abstract
Daily surface air temperature from ERA-Interim reanalysis is used to study the cold and warm anomalies observed in December–February 1979–2017 over three regions of North Eurasia. The air temperature anomalies were selected that exceeded the standard deviation in the absolute magnitude and persisted 7 days and longer. The anomalies were analyzed in terms of the frequency of occurrence, strength, persistence, extension and the integral index of severity. The reproducibility of the statistical characteristics of the anomalies was also considered using ensemble simulations with the MGO atmospheric general circulation model and prescribed boundary conditions from observation for the period 1979–2017. The observed and simulated trends of the anomaly characteristics over the whole period and their link to the surface air temperature anomalies in the Barents and Kara seas were also discussed. It was shown that the most significant cold anomalies have been observed in Western Siberia since the beginning of the 21st century, when positive winter temperature anomalies were recorded over the Barents and Kara seas.



New Methods and Technologies of Ice Forecasts for the Arctic Seas
Abstract
Methodological approaches in the area of long- and short-range ice forecasts are discussed. Three basic modern directions of long-term ice forecast development are shown. New methods of long-range ice forecasts developed in the recent decade are presented. The ways of improving the AARI short-range ice forecast method based on the coupled ice-ocean dynamic-thermodynamic model are considered. It is shown that the numerical modeling as a specific branch of ice forecasting requires permanent development. The automation of ice forecasts can be implemented as an automated workplace or as a hardware-software complex.



Atlantic Water in the Arctic Circulation Transpolar System
Abstract
The water of Atlantic origin (Atlantic water) is of special importance for the formation of the hydrological regime of the Arctic Ocean and provides a “building material” for the main water masses in the surface and intermediate layers. Atlantic water are structurally included to the Arctic Transpolar System (ATS); it is a multicomponent physical object whose state defines the role of the Arctic Ocean in the planetary climate. The recent advances in the Atlantic water research are discussed, in particular, the role of Atlantic water in the Arctic sea ice reduction. Particular attention is paid to the possible activation of feedbacks in ATS that may result in an accelerated Arctic sea ice loss recorded after 2007.



Satellite Technologies Applied to Hydrometeorological Problems in the Arctic Region
Abstract
The study provides the overview of the Russian and foreign Earth satellite observation systems used to monitor the Arctic region. The plans of development of Russian hydrometeorological constellation in the next years are outlined. A brief description of the Arktika-M satellite system is presented. The informational prospects are discussed of using IR data from MSU-IK-SRM scanning radiometer installed onboard Kanopus-V-IK satellite to monitor the Arctic sea ice. Various techniques of satellite data processing developed and used in the Planeta Research Center for Space Hydrometeorology are presented including the plotting of raster and vector Arctic sea ice maps, the maps of automated detection and classification of Arctic ice structures with multispectral imagery, sea ice drift, and sea ice boundaries in the Arctic region and its Russian sector. The long-term satellite datasets on Arctic sea ice mapping are analyzed, sea ice reduction is revealed. Map validation results for the Arctic sea ice boundaries obtained from Russian and foreign satellite data are presented.



Satellite Monitoring of Icebergs in the Arctic Seas
Abstract
The study present the results of the satellite monitoring of Arctic icebergs formed from the outlet glaciers of the Severnaya Zemlya, Novaya Zemlya, and Franz Josef Land archipelagos during the autumn-winter and spring periods. The algorithms for iceberg detection in satellite images under different meteorological and ice conditions are described.



Abnormal Wind Waves in the Arctic: Probability of Occurrence and Spatial Distribution
Abstract
The estimates of the height and length of surface waves generated by polar lows in the Barents Sea and in the eastern Norwegian Sea are presented. The calculations are based on the parametric model of wave generation by a moving cyclone [9]. The simulations of wave fields are performed for the spatiotemporal characteristics of polar lows provided in [14]. The highest amplitude waves are generated in the right sector of the moving polar low, and if the condition of the “group resonance” is met, the wave height and wavelength become abnormally high. It is shown that a significant part of polar lows satisfy the resonance condition, thus, the account of their movement is required to estimate the height of generated waves. The model simulations revealed that the frequency of occurrence of waves with the height of >4 m is 3–5 events per year, the frequency of occurrence of waves with the height of 8 m is one event per year, and the number of cases with the wave height of >12 and >15 m is one–two per 10 and 20 years, respectively.



Hydrological Hazards on Russian Arctic Rivers
Abstract
The study analyzes hydrological hazards which should be considered during the planning and implementation of the strategy of long-term socioeconomic development of the Russian Arctic. The results are presented of the analysis of multiyear dynamics of the maximum and minimum streamflow for the Russian Arctic rivers and for the largest rivers in the Arctic Ocean basin and their changes under the current climate warming. The examples of significant negative socioeconomic consequences of hydrological hazards are considered. A high importance of hydrological conditions on navigable waterways for the delivery of most goods to the Arctic region is noted.



Activation of Cryogenic Processes in Central Yamal as a Result of Regional and Local Change in Climate and Thermal State of Permafrost
Abstract
Various climatic parameters (average annual, winter, and summer air temperature, winter and summer total precipitation) and their temporal variability are analyzed to explain the activation of cryogenic processes in Central Yamal. The effect of fluctuations of these parameters on the thaw depth and ground temperature is analyzed. The regression analysis is carried out to reconstruct ground temperature during earlier periods of time in the years preceding the activation of thermal denudation and the formation of gas emission craters.



Atmospheric Concentration of Carbon Dioxide at Tiksi and Cape Baranov Stations in 2010–2017
Abstract
The study presents the results of continuous measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmospheric surface layer at Tiksi and Cape Baranov Arctic stations over the period of August 2010–May 2017 and over the whole 2016, respectively. The amplitude of diurnal variations in the CO2 concentration in Tiksi from June to September is 1.1 ± 1.3, 2.4 ± 2.0, 4.1 ± 2.3, and 2.0 ± 2.4 ppm. Diurnal variations in CO2 at Cape Baranov station are absent. The observed seasonal variations in the CO2 concentration are compared with the data of the MBL empirical model for the marine atmospheric boundary layer of the Arctic region. In 2016, the difference between the observed and model concentrations at Tiksi and Cape Baranov stations amounted to 1.7 and 0.5 ppm, respectively, in winter and −3.0 and −1.9 ppm, respectively, in summer. It is shown that wildfires in Siberia caused a long synchronous increase in the CO2 concentration by 20 ppm in Tiksi and by 15 ppm at Cape Baranov station.



Communications
Experience of Interaction between the EMERCOM of Russia and Roshydromet to Provide the Safety of Population and Territories in the Russian Arctic
Abstract
The study considers the experience of interaction between Roshydromet and EMERCOM of Russia in the Russian Arctic and its development under conditions of extending economic activity and climate change. The aim is to increase the readiness to respond to emergencies in the Arctic region. Concrete measures are proposed to use the available experience for organizing the network of Arctic complex emergency-rescue centers.



Instruments, Observations, and Processing
Hybrid Stand-alone Power Supply Systems for the Arctic Polar Stations
Abstract
Hybrid power supply systems based on the renewable energy sources, electrochemical rechargeable batteries, and fuel cells are considered. Such systems provide stable power supply and offer some advantages both over the traditional hydrocarbon-fueled diesel generators and over the radioisotope thermoelectric generators. The innovative technology of group connection to the Russian Satellite Communications Company resources is considered as a tool for the remote control of operation modes of various power generation sources under changing environmental parameters and payload. It is proposed to use such hybrid power systems to provide power supply for autonomous observation stations in the Russian Arctic.


