The evolution of the stress state in Southern California based on the geomechanical model and current seismicity

Abstract

A three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California, which includes the mountain topography, fault tectonics, and main structural boundaries (the top of the lower crust and the Moho), is developed. The main stress state of the model is determined by the own weight of the rocks and by the horizontal tectonic motions identified from the GPS observations. The model enables tracking the changes which occur in the stress-strain state of the crust due to the evolution of the seismic process. As the input data, the model uses the current seismicity and treats each earthquake as a new defect in the Earth’s crust which brings about the redistribution of strains, elastic energy density, and yield stress of the crust. Monitoring the variations in the stress state of the crust and lithosphere arising in response to the seismic process shows that the model is suitable for forecasting the enhancement in seismic activity of the region and delineating the earthquake-prone areas with a reasonable probability on a given time interval.