Strong Earthquakes in 2009–2016 in Central Italy: Tectonic Position, Seismic History, and Aftershock Processes

Abstract

Based on the seismological, geodynamic, and seismotectonic data on the strongest series of earthquakes in 2009–2017 in Central Italy, which were collected by many researchers, mostly Italian, the tectonic position of these events is determined and the seismic history of the region over more than 2000 years of observations of seismic manifestations in Italy is traced in the context of the strong events of the beginning of the 21st century. The aftershock processes of these earthquakes are investigated and, as a result, the possibility of a series of strong aftershocks of the earthquake of October 30, 2016 (M_W = 6.6) is predicted in advance of the actual occurrence of these events on January 18, 2017.