Mesozoic–Cenozoic Climate and Neotectonic Events as Factors in Reconstructing the Thermal History of the Source-Rock Bazhenov Formation, Arctic Region, West Siberia, by the Example of the Yamal Peninsula

Schemes and criteria are developed for using the measured and modeled geotemperatures for studying the thermal regime of the source rock formations, as well as the tectonic and sedimentary history of sedimentary basins, by the example of the oil fields of the Yamal Peninsula. The method of paleotemperature modeling based on the numerical solution of the heat conduction equation for a horizontally layered solid with a movable upper boundary is used. The mathematical model directly includes the climatic secular trend of the Earth’s surface temperature as the boundary condition and the paleotemperatures determined from the vitrinite reflectance as the measurement data. The method does not require a priori information about the nature and intensities of the heat flow from the Earth’s interior; the flow is determined by solving the inverse problem of geothermy with a parametric description of the of the sedimentation history and the history of the thermophysical properties of the sedimentary stratum. The rate of sedimentation is allowed to be zero and negative which provides the possibility to take into account the gaps in sedimentation and denudation. The formation, existence, and degradation of the permafrost stratum and ice cover are taken into account as dynamical lithological–stratigraphic complexes with anomalously high thermal conductivity. It is established that disregarding the paleoclimatic factors precludes an adequate reconstruction of thermal history of the source-rock deposits. Revealing and taking into account the Late Eocene regression provided the computationally optimal and richest thermal history of the source-rock Bazhenov Formation, which led to more correct volumetric–genetic estimates of the reserves. For estimating the hydrocarbon reserves in the land territories of the Arctic region of West Siberia by the volumetric–genetic technique, it is recommended to use the Arctic secular trend of temperatures and take into account the dynamics of the Neoplesitocene permafrost layers 300–600 m thick. Otherwise, the calculated hydrocarbon reserves could be underestimated by up to 40%.