Modeling the Stress-Strain State in the Epicentral Zone of a Strong Earthquake in Iran (December 26, 2003, Mw = 6.6)

Abstract

The results of modeling the stress-strain state for the epicentral zone of the earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2003 in the southeast of Iran in the city of Bam, Kerman province, before and after the rupture are presented. It is shown that the source of the earthquake is located in the zone of high stresses, whereas the emerged rupture traces this zone on the surface and corresponds to its length. The aftershocks are localized in the area of the maximal stress drop after the formation of the rupture. The drop in the stress stimulates the release of the accumulated tectonic stresses during the subsequent aftershock process. The obtained results can be useful for the deterministic approach to seismic hazard assessment and forecasting, as well as for setting up the geophysical observations intended for forecasting the strong crustal earthquakes in the continental regions.