Dynamics of Induced Seismicity during the Filling of the Nurek Reservoir

Abstract

The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb − d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.