Vol 52, No 4 (2016)

The fuzzy clustering and zoning method (FCAZm) of systems analysis is suggested for recognizing the areas of the probable generation of the epicenters of significant, strong, and the strongest earthquakes. FCAZm is a modified version of the previous FCAZ algorithmic system, which is advanced by the creation of the blocks of artificial intelligence that develop the system-forming algorithms. FCAZm has been applied for recognizing areas where the epicenters of the strongest (M ≥ 7³/4) earthquakes within the Andes mountain belt in the South America and significant earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the Caucasus can emerge. The reliability of the obtained results was assessed by the seismic-history type control experiments. The recognized highly seismic zones were compared with the ones previously recognized by the EPA method and by the initial version of the FCAZ system. The modified FCAZm system enabled us to pass from simple pattern recognition in the problem of recognizing the locations of the probable emergence of strong earthquakes to systems analysis. In particular, using FCAZm we managed to uniquely recognize a subsystem of highly seismically active zones from the nonempty complement using the exact boundary.

The parameters of S-wave attenuation (the total effect of absorption and scattering) near the Petropavlovsk (PET) station in Kamchatka were estimated by means of the spectral method through an original procedure. The spectral method typically analyzes the changes with distance of the shape of spectra of the acceleration records assuming that the acceleration spectrum at the earthquake source is flat. In reality, this assumption is violated: the source acceleration spectra often have a high-frequency cutoff (the source-controlled f_max) which limits the spectral working bandwidth. Ignoring this phenomenon not only leads to a broad scatter of the individual estimates but also causes systematic errors in the form of overestimation of losses. In the approach applied in the present study, we primarily estimated the frequency of the mentioned high-frequency cutoff and then constructed the loss estimates only within the frequency range where the source spectrum is approximately flat. The shape of the source spectrum was preliminarily assessed by the approximate loss compensation technique. For this purpose, we used the tentative attenuation estimates which are close to the final ones. The difference in the logarithms of the spectral amplitudes at the edges of the working bandwidth is the input for calculating the attenuation. We used the digital accelerograms from the PET station, with 80 samples per second digitization rate, and based on them, we calculated the averaged spectrum of the S-waves as the root mean square along two horizontal components. Our analysis incorporates 384 spectra from the local earthquakes with M = 4–6.5 at the hypocentral distances ranging from 80 to 220 km. By applying the nonlinear least-square method, we found the following parameters of the loss model: the Q-factor Q₀ = 156 ± 33 at frequency f = 1 Hz for the distance interval r = 0–100 km; the exponent in the power-law relationship describing the growth of the Q-factor with frequency, γ = 0.56 ± 0.08; and the loss parameter beneath the station κ₀ = 0.03 ± 0.005 s. The actual accuracy of the estimates can probably be somewhat lower than the cited formal accuracy. It is also established (with a confidence level of 10%) that the losses decrease with distance.

The characteristics of the foci for the main shock and strongest aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal are described. The macroseismic data and examples of seismic dislocations are discussed. The progression of the release of seismic energy by the aftershock process is analyzed. The data for the geophysical and seismological precursors of the main shock and the strongest aftershock of May 12, 2015 are presented. These data allowed us to formulate the short-term forecast of this event.

Profile 1-AP with a length of 1300 km intersects the Barents Sea from The Kola Peninsula to Franz Josef Land. The combined Common Depth Point (CDP) and Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) seismic studies were carried out on this profile. The DSS measurements were conducted with the standalone bottom seismic stations with an interval of 5–20 km between them. The stations recorded the signals generated by the large air guns with a step of 250 m. Based on these data, the detailed P-velocity section of the Earth’s crust and uppermost mantle have been constructed for the entire profile and the S-velocity section for its southern part. The use of a variety of methods for constructing the velocity sections enabled us to assess the capabilities of each method from the standpoint of the highest reliability and informativity of the models. The ray tracing method yielded the best results. The 1-PR profile crosses two large basins—the South Barents and North Barents ones, with the thickness of the sediments increasing from 8 to 10 km in the south to 12–15 km in the north. The Earth’s crust pertains to the continental type along the entire profile. Its thickness averages 32 to 36 km and only increases to 43 km at the boundary between the two basins. The distinct change in the wave field at this boundary suggests the presence of a large deep fault in this zone. The high-velocity blocks are revealed in the crust of the South Barents basin, whereas the North Barents crust is characterized by relatively low velocities.

Extensive data comprising about 1500 seismic events with the moment magnitudes M_W from–3.5 to 9.2 have been analyzed for identifying the implications of the event size, the type of faulting in the source, and tectonic situations for the efficiency of the radiation. It is shown that there are several hierarchy levels with different patterns of scaling relationships describing the changes in the parameters of seismic events with the event size. This is due to the specificity of the hierarchy in the macroscopic characteristics of the rock mass. The size and mechanism of the earthquake determine the general trends in the variations of its radiation efficiency. The role of the macroscopic parameter controlling the efficiency of a seismic source is played by the stiffness of a fault or a fracture. The scaling relationship of this parameter determines several hierarchical levels within which the changes in the characteristics of the earthquakes follow the different laws. The huge scatter in the values of the scaled energy (the ratio of the radiated seismic energy to the seismic moment, energy-to-moment ratio) about the average requires additional study. Quite probably, the value of the scaled seismic energy is determined by the mesostructure and physicomechanical characteristics of the fault’s core. Small variations in these factors may lead to drastic changes in the stress drop amplitude and in the rupture propagation velocity up to the emergence of different regimes of deformation.