Vol 53, No 1 (2017)

The sample analysis of threshold phenomena in the lithosphere, atmosphere, and magnetosphere is conducted. The phenomena due to the flow of electric current and pore fluid in the rocks are considered, the scenario of wind-driven generation of atmospheric electricity is suggested, and the model of the geomagnetic storm time Dst variation is analyzed. An important general conclusion consists in the fact that in the geophysical media there is a wide class of threshold phenomena that are affine with phase transitions of the second kind. These phenomena are also related to the critical transitions in self-oscillatory systems with soft self-excitation. The integral representation of bifurcation diagrams for threshold phenomena is suggested. This provides a simple way to take into account the influence of the fluctuations on the transition of a system through the threshold. Fluctuations remove singularity at the threshold point and, generally, lead to a certain shifting of the threshold. The question concerning the hard transition through the threshold and several aspects of modeling the blow-up instability which is presumed to occasionally develop in the geophysical media are discussed.

The results of the theoretical and experimental research on the technique for refining the global Earth geopotential models such as EGM2008 in the continental regions are presented. The discussed technique is based on the high-resolution satellite data for the Earth’s surface topography which enables the allowance for the fine structure of the Earth’s gravitational field without the additional gravimetry data. The experimental studies are conducted by the example of the new GGMplus global gravity model of the Earth with a resolution about 0.5 km, which is obtained by expanding the EGM2008 model to degree 2190 with the corrections for the topograohy calculated from the SRTM data. The GGMplus and EGM2008 models are compared with the regional geoid models in 21 regions of North America, Australia, Africa, and Europe. The obtained estimates largely support the possibility of refining the global geopotential models such as EGM2008 by the procedure implemented in GGMplus, particularly in the regions with relatively high elevation difference.

In this paper, a relatively simple and physically solid algorithm is developed for solving the problem of reference density selection for the models of heterogeneous media. The way is suggested for determining the excess density of the individual elements of the structured model against the background varying density of the hosting rocks: in the calculations, the latter should be replaced by the hydrostatic density of the normal model, which only depends on depths. It is shown that the excess density of the elements within the inhomogeneous layer, referred to the depth-varying hydrostatic density of the normal model, has a significantly lower value throughout the entire depth of the studied domain and minimizes the gravitational effect of density contact along a curvilinear boundary. The efficiency of the algorithm is demonstrated by the model example and case study. Within the density model for the lithosphere of the Timan–Pechora plate, the structural layers corresponding to the sedimentary cover, crystalline crust, and upper mantle are isolated. For each of them, the fields are calculated within the gravitational model of a heterogeneous layer with curvilinear boundaries.

Previously, we predicted and then observed in practice the property of aftershocks which consists in the statistically regular clustering of events in time during the first hours after the main shock. The characteristic quasi-period of clustering is three hours. This property is associated with the cumulative action of the surface waves converging to the epicenter, whereas the quasi-period is mainly determined by the time delay of the round-the-world seismic echo. The quasi-period varies from case to case. In the attempt to find the cause of this variability, we have statistically explored the probable dependence of quasi-period on the magnitude of the main shock. In this paper, we present the corresponding result of analyzing global seismicity from the USGS/NEIC earthquake catalog. We succeeded in finding a significant reduction in the quasiperiod of the strong earthquakes clustering with growth in the magnitude of the main shock. We suggest the interpretation of this regularity from the standpoint of the phenomenological theory of explosive instability. It is noted that the phenomenon of explosive instability is fairly common in the geophysical media. The examples of explosive instability in the radiation belt and magnetospheric tail are presented. The search for the parallels in the evolution of explosive instability in the lithosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth will enrich both the physics of the earthquakes and physics of the magnetospheric pulsations.

The technology which is being developed based on the seismic entropy method for monitoring and forecasting the earthquakes in the territory of Russia is described. This technology relies on seismostatistics and makes it possible to automate the monitoring system and to efficiently tap the networks of ground-based and ground-and-satellite-based observations of operative precursors. The main seismic systems responsible for the preparation of the strong earthquakes with magnitudes М ≥ 5.5 are described. The track and energy diagrams constructed for each seismic system provide the means for monitoring the preparation and forecasting the strong earthquakes in the real-time mode. Forty-four seismic systems controlling almost all seismically hazardous regions in Russia were identified and tested in real time during the period from 2010 to 2015. The guidelines for the practical application of the results of monitoring and forecasting are developed.

The paper addresses the construction of one-dimensional (1D) velocity models in the seismogenic regions of Azerbaijan taken individually and the analysis of implications of these models for estimating the key parameters of earthquake sources in Azerbaijan. We considered and analyzed the seismological data from the local earthquakes, the arrival times of the P-, P-g, Pn-, S-, Sg-, and Sn-waves recorded by the network of telemetry stations during the period from 2005 to 2014 with ml ≥ 2.5. For constructing the models, we used the VELEST program which calculates 1D velocity models from travel times of seismic waves. As a result, the 1D models were built for ten regions of Azerbaijan; the key parameters of the hypocenters of the earthquakes were recalculated; and the corrections to the body-wave arrival times at the observation stations were obtained, which increased the accuracy of locating the hypocenter of earthquakes.

The paper addresses the study of the Antarctic lithosphere. Based on the new gravimetric and seismic data, the refined model of the Moho depth is constructed. New estimates of the isostatic state are obtained for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. The interpretation of the results is presented.

The results of in situ ground-based observations of radon volumetric activity carried out at the Borok Geophysical Observatory of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences (58°04′ N; 38°14′ E) are presented. Modeling the characteristic diurnal variation in the ion production rate in the undisturbed midlatitude lower atmosphere above land is carried out. The Lagrangian stochastic model of turbulent transport is developed in application to determining the vertical profiles of radon activity for 222Rn and 220Rn isotopes and their radioactive decay products. The results calculated by the Lagrangian stochastic model are matched with the analytical solution for the free atmosphere. Based on the model, the estimate is obtained for the rate of radon outflow from the convective boundary layer to the free clear sky atmosphere. The implications of temperature stratification of the atmosphere for the vertical distribution of the ion production rate at the different radon emission rate are explored.