Том 27, № 2 (2016)

Inforum models have been built and used in a number of countries including the USA, Russia, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Austria, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom², South Africa, Mexico, Colombia, China, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam and perhaps others. They make extensive use of econometrics and input-output analysis to describe the functioning of an economy not only at a macroeconomic level but also at the level of individual products and industries. I want to record–somewhat autobiographically—the beginnings of these models, outline their evolution, defend them and other econometric models against the sweeping Lucas critique, and mention some of the fads in economics and modeling which have been avoided for good reason.

The currently topical issues of interaction between Russia and Europe in the field of energy have been considered. It has been stated that the possibility of energy union yields more advantages to each of the parties than the possibility of conflict. Russia’s alternative energy policies in the case of aggravated trade and economic relations are presented.

A system of short-term indicators of economic security of Russia has been suggested for possible use in predicting the origin of crises. A comparative analysis of the 1998–1999, 2008–2009, and 2014–2015 crises has been performed. The formative premises of the crises and their impact on financial sector, real economy, foreign trade, and social welfare have been considered. A technique of synthesizing average indexes in different projections of economic security system has been suggested, and the particularities of their joint combined dynamics have been considered.

The article describes long-term possibilities for participation in domestic machine engineering in major economic projects. The basic relationships between economic, institutional, and technological factors of regional development are identified. Some ideas are proposed for the substantiation of innovative development programs for the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation.

The main exogenous (natural resources, climate, and world oil and gas markets) and endogenous (transport infrastructure, investments, and icebreaking and commercial fleets) factors are specified in the article as influencing freight traffic in areas of the Arctic waters. The scenarios of the development of freight flows of the Northern Sea Route in the short and strategic term are substantiated.

The principal problems of food security in the Russian Federation are reviewed in the article. Significant attention is paid to the analysis of the existing material and technical base of the agriculture, the location and specialization of the regions, energy conservation, and import substitution.

The article presents the results of predicting the production of aquatic bioresources in the Republic of Crimea, outlines the main strategies in the development of the regional fishing industry complex, and specifies the preferable techniques for industrial farming of aquatic bioresources to provide the plants composing the region’s fishing sector with domestically supplied raw fish and seafood, as well as the population with proteins of aquatic origin.

The results of the next stage of works for assessing the effects of temperature waves on mortality indicators have been presented. The danger of cold waves for the public health in Southern cities of European Russia has been evaluated. Cold waves with duration of 5–20 days, during which the air temperature was below the threshold value determined based on the probability characteristics of the multi-year distribution of daily average temperatures in each city, have been studied. The cold thresholds were equal to (–12.6°C in Volgograd,–9.4°C in Rostov-on-Don and Astrakhan’, and–4.4°C in Krasnodar). The premature mortality rates per 100000 people in the population per year caused by cold waves in Southern cities of Russia were calculated. A meta analysis of risks by the four Southern cities showed statistically significant results almost for all the studied causes of death; the highest values of risk were determined for diseases of the circulatory system for individuals aged 65 and older.

The article provides an overview of foreign economic ties between Russia and Estonia in the modern context, problems of economic relations between the two countries amid the deteriorating economic relations between Russia and the European Union.

This paper analyzes the development of investment cooperation between CIS countries based on the official statistics using alternative methods of calculating direct investment. Prospects of corporate integration are explored in view of the ongoing crisis over Ukraine and with respect to intensifying negative trends in the Russian economy that affect the macroeconomic situation in most post-Soviet countries. Special attention is paid to assessing the possibilities of closer cooperation in the investment field within the Eurasian Economic Union.