Том 27, № 5 (2016)

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the features of the regional economic growth recovery policy.

This paper presents updated figures on the dynamics of human capital in the Russian economy. Time series of human capital are obtained for major types of economic activity that cover up to 85–90% of the total human capital in the Russian economy for 1992–2012. An analysis of the impact of accumulated human capital on economic dynamics is performed by means of the production function model. An original approach to assessing the production function based on the method of principal components is introduced.

This paper examines the impact of increase in public spending in Russia on the dynamics of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators using econometric methods and a dynamic input–output model.

The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.

This paper analyzes the possible impact of irrigation on the development of agriculture in the Volga River Basin and Black Sea Basin. Scenarios of the development of agriculture in Russia up to 2030 under the conditions of the expansion of irrigation and persistence of the current situation with irrigation have been calculated and analyzed based on the IMPACT-3 econometric partial equilibrium model.

The paper considers the quantitative scope of the monetary policy that provides the demand of the economy for working capital during the return to economic growth. Directions of monetary and fiscal policies in times of crisis have been substantiated.

The nature of the cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wages in Russia in 2003–2014 has been analyzed. The author has focused on defining the reliability of cost-push inflation theory and demand inflation theory based on Russian data using econometric methods (the Granger causality test and vector error-correction model). The stabilit y of the modeling results (for the purpose of excluding structural changes under the conditions of varying of the principles of Bank of Russia’s monetary policy during the transition to inflation targeting) is checked using the Gregory–Hansen method. In the article, the results are compared to the similar studies carried out for developed countries and countries with developing markets.

This article provides an assessment of the influence of urbanization and agglomeration factors on the level and interregional differentiation of unemployment using spatial autoregressive models. The spatial localization of unemployment has been measured and the excessive differentiation of regions and economic areas has been revealed. Modeling of spatial effects of unemployment in regions of Russia has made it possible to conclude that urbanization and regional localization significantly influence unemployment.