Том 29, № 6 (2018)

The current issue of the journal is dedicated to problems of using input–output models in modern scientific research and economic policy. Authors who applied the model in their scientific work and obtained significant scientific results are involved. This subject will take an important place in the further research practice of IEF RAS.

This article presents basic guidelines of “input–output” approach for decision-making in the field of economic policy. Special attention is given to modern approaches to the analysis and forecasting of economic development by using a cross-sectoral approach. The paper discusses the limitations of structural development of the Russian economy and describes the capabilities of modern interindustry models in the field of macrostructural forecasting.

Using the input−output approach, the article examines evolving economic growth in developed and developing countries over the last 30–40 years and the structural shifts brought about by globalization. The rationale of a possible reindustrialization scenario for developed countries is substantiated. Assessment is performed of the impact that global value-added chains exert on the development of individual countries, the relationship between the level of technological development, structural shifts, and economic growth.

Based on Rosstat data and Input-Output tables developed by the IEF RAS, we study the changes in the price system, in production technologies, in the proportions of income distribution, and in the structure of final demand, that have been observed since the early 1990s. The paper also estimates the effect of these shifts on the dynamics and branch structure of gross output.

The paper describes the experience of analyzing and forecasting various aspects of Russian economy based on input−output tables (1st and 2nd quadrants) estimated by the authors from Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the period 1995–2016.

Using input-output analysis, the article considers possible ways to use the potential of the fuel and energy complex to implement structural and technological modernization of the Russian economy. Positive effects from changing the operational mode of the fuel and energy complex towards a solvent consumer of competitive domestic products in the context of import substitution processes, as well as a source of relatively cheap energy sources for domestic producers, are estimated.

The paper analyzes and comments on the results of a regular survey of Russian enterprises in the real sector, which was conducted by the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It presents the assessments which the enterprises gave to the federal and regional authorities for the quality of their economic policies. The paper reflects the views of the Russian enterprises on the role that the state must play in the economy. The viewpoint of the enterprises regarding the level of bureaucracy and corruption in various state authorities is presented. The data on the current investment activity of the enterprises and their short-term investment intentions are presented. The impact of the ruble exchange rate on the production activity of the enterprises is considered. The assessments of the enterprises about the current level of competition with foreign producers in Russian markets are reflected. The current situation with the labor demand of the enterprises is assessed.

The article analyzes factors, features and trends in the development of the Russian foreign exchange market as an integral part of international currency market in the context of global financial imbalances, de-globalization processes, new protectionism and sanctions regime in relation to Russia. Particular attention is paid to assessing the impact of forms and methods of managing international foreign exchange reserves on structure of Russian foreign exchange market, as well as characterizing the channels of impact of the current conditions for functioning of the Russian foreign exchange market on the currency policy strategy.

The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of mortality trends in two Russian capitals and two cities with population over one million, Krasnoyarsk and Rostov-on-Don, in comparison with foreign megacities (Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo). From 1990 to 2015, in the Russian “model cities” the standardized mortality rates (SMR) for all causes on average decreased by almost a third: most in Moscow (44% for men and 42% for women) and less for Krasnoyarsk (22% for both men and women). An assessment of the statistical reliability of the decrease in SMR on the basis of long time series showed the absence of a positive dynamic of mortality from diseases of the digestive organs, mainly cirrhosis, which confirms the presence of the alcoholic component. Despite the sufficiently steady decline in mortality in the early 2000s, its level in Russian cities continues to significantly exceed the mortality rate in foreign megacities.