Forecasting the Dynamics of the Depletion of Conventional Energy Resources

Resumo

The paper presents the results of forecasting the dynamics of the depletion of conventional energy resources, including hydrocarbons (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural uranium, which currently form the mainstay of the energy supply of the economy. A balance model developed by the authors shows the dynamics of the growing shortage of exhaustible conventional energy resources after 2040 at various energy-consumption rates. For the time being, it is unclear which nonconventional primary energy sources are able to supply advanced commercially acceptable fast-growing energy systems (including capital investment) in order to equalize the rapidly growing primary energy shortages expected in the 1940s. The most advanced energy technology with almost unlimited resources that has reached the near-commercial stage of development can be nuclear fuel breeding.