Transformation of the population structure in the northern regions of Western Siberia: factors and consequences

The relevance of the study lies in the gradual change of the socio-economic conditions for further development of the northern territories of Western Siberia. Traditionally, the basis of their development was oil and gas production, which ensured population growth and infrastructure construction: beginning of development of the oil and gas industry in the 1960s and its further development led to an influx of labor resources to Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. Attractiveness of these territories for the workforce from other regions was due to high wages and benefits provided there. However, in the context of the current decline in oil production, the key tasks are to preserve the demographic stability and social well-being of northern cities. Thus, the purpose of the study was to analyze the current state and prospects for socio-demographic development of the northern regions of Western Siberia under the conditions of further decrease in oil and gas production.The analysis was based on data from the population censuses of the late 1980s (data from earlier All–Union censuses of 1959 and 1979 were partially used for comparison) — 2021. As a result, the main stages of development of the northern cities of Western Siberia were considered, changes in their socio-demographic structure and migration processes were analyzed. There has been revealed predominantly negative dynamics of the population in the territories under consideration, that leads to a change in the sex and age composition of these territories, characterized by increasing dynamics in population aging and growing proportion of women among the entire population. There is also a gradual replacement of the Russian population by other national groups (mainly from Central Asia). It is concluded that further diversification of the economy of these territories is necessary — creation of new types of economic activity that will save jobs and prevent further outflow of people. An important role in this process is played by the state policy, the analysis and assessment of which is a promising direction for further research.

socio-demographic transformation, shift method, migration, territories of new development, Western Siberia, population aging