Статистические подходы к оценке избыточной смертности: обзор предметного поля на примере пандемии COVID-19
- Авторы: Кригер Е.А.1, Постоев В.А.1, Гржибовский А.M.1,2
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Учреждения:
- Северный государственный медицинский университет
- Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет им. М.В. Ломоносова
- Выпуск: Том 30, № 7 (2023)
- Страницы: 483-498
- Раздел: СИСТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ ОБЗОРЫ
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1728-0869/article/view/232039
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/humeco595937
- ID: 232039
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Избыточная смертность определяется как временное увеличение смертности в популяции по сравнению с ожидаемой. Она может быть обусловлена различными природными или техногенными катастрофами. В период пандемии новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19) во всех странах мира наблюдалось увеличение смертности, однако далеко не все летальные случаи были вызваны непосредственно коронавирусной инфекцией. Оценка избыточной смертности во время пандемии, особенно в разрезе основных причин смерти, представляет собой важную задачу общественного здравоохранения. Результаты расчётов, однако, могут сильно различаться в зависимости от используемых методологических подходов к оценке избыточной смертности.
Целью данной работы стал обзор аналитических подходов к количественной оценке избыточной смертности в период пандемии COVID-19. Для исследования были систематически отобраны полнотекстовые публикации на русском и английском языке, опубликованные в 2020–2022 гг., посвящённые оценке избыточной смертности в период пандемии COVID-19. Поиск полнотекстовых англоязычных публикаций проводили в базе данных MEDLINE (www.pubmed.gov), русскоязычных — в базе данных научной электронной библиотеки eLIBRARY.RU (www.elibrary.ru). Из 725 идентифицированных публикаций в обзор включено 83 оригинальных исследования. Наиболее часто используемыми статистическими методами для оценки избыточной смертности были регрессия Пуассона с коррекцией на избыточную дисперсию и ряд адаптивных моделей, основанных на авторегрессии и проинтегрированном скользящем среднем. Выбор модели основывался на длительности имеющегося вариационного ряда, его характеристик и интервала для прогнозирования.
Данный обзор может служить отправной точкой для выбора аналитического подхода при анализе избыточной смертности во время пандемии COVID-19 в субъектах Российской Федерации.
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Екатерина Анатольевна Кригер
Северный государственный медицинский университет
Автор, ответственный за переписку.
Email: kate-krieger@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5179-5737
к.м.н., доцент
Россия, АрхангельскВиталий Александрович Постоев
Северный государственный медицинский университет
Email: ispha@nsmu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4982-4169
к.м.н., доцент
Россия, АрхангельскАндрей Mечиславович Гржибовский
Северный государственный медицинский университет; Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет им. М.В. Ломоносова
Email: a.grjibovski@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5464-0498
Россия, Архангельск; Архангельск
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