Email this article Modeling and prediction of age-specific mortality rates using the Lee–Carter model
- Authors: Borschuk E.L.1, Begun D.N.1, Bolodurina I.P.1,2, Menshikova L.I.3, Kolesnik S.V.2, Duisembaeva A.N.2
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Affiliations:
- Orenburg State Medical University
- Orenburg State University
- Northern State Medical University
- Issue: Vol 31, No 1 (2024)
- Pages: 61-76
- Section: ORIGINAL STUDY ARTICLES
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1728-0869/article/view/264853
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/humeco611099
- ID: 264853
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: High mortality remains one of the most significant health concerns in Russia. One of the priorities of the state policy is to reduce mortality rates among the working-age population and increase life expectancy. Predicting population mortality rates serves as a valuable tool for effectively allocating the available resources.
AIM: To perform mathematical modeling and prediction of mortality rates of the population of the Orenburg region using the Lee–Carter model.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: The age- and sex-specific mortality rates and the population size of the Orenburg region for the period 1991–2020 was used as a study base. The Lee–Carter method was applied to model and predict population mortality. By deriving key parameters, a random walk model with drift was developed, and an accuracy assessment was performed.
RESULTS: The Lee-Carter model has been utilized to analyze the mortality rates of the male population in the Orenburg region. Through this modeling process, an accuracy rate of 87% was achieved, providing a reliable basis for long-term prediction. Mortality forecasts have been generated up to the year 2035, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of future trends in the region.
CONCLUSION: The analysis of the results indicates that the pandemic's impact on population mortality is expected to be short-term. In the upcoming years, the mortality rate of the male population in the Orenburg region is projected to continue decreasing.
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##article.viewOnOriginalSite##About the authors
Evgenii L. Borschuk
Orenburg State Medical University
Email: be@nm.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3617-5908
PhD, Professor, Head of the Department of Public Health and Healthcare No. 1
Russian Federation, 7 Park Ave., Orenburg, 460000Dmitrii N. Begun
Orenburg State Medical University
Email: be@nm.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8920-6675
SPIN-code: 8443-4400
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor of the Department of Public Health and Healthcare No. 1
Russian Federation, 7 Park Ave., Orenburg, 460000Irina P. Bolodurina
Orenburg State Medical University; Orenburg State University
Email: prmat@mail.osu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0096-2587
SPIN-code: 4848-0669
Dr. Sci. (Engineering), Professor
Russian Federation, 7 Park Ave., Orenburg, 460000; OrenburgLarisa I. Menshikova
Northern State Medical University
Email: menshikova1807@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1525-2003
SPIN-code: 9700-6736
MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor
Russian Federation, ArkhangelskSvetlana V. Kolesnik
Orenburg State University
Email: svkolesnik_osu@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0009-3008-0308
SPIN-code: 7548-3688
Russian Federation, Orenburg
Aislu N. Duisembaeva
Orenburg State University
Author for correspondence.
Email: k.kro1@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5762-4277
SPIN-code: 7164-7107
Scopus Author ID: 58149835100
Russian Federation, Orenburg
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