Changes in overall and primary morbidity in federal districts of the Russian Federation: current status and forecast

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Morbidity rates serve as key indicators in the comprehensive assessment of public health status. Analyzing their changes plays a crucial role in developing healthcare management strategies at both federal and regional levels. Moreover, such data are used for planning the development of medical infrastructure and identifying the resources needed for its implementation.

AIM: The work aimed to analyze long-term changes in overall and primary morbidity rates across the federal districts of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2023, assess their trends, and construct predictive models.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis of long-term changes in overall and primary morbidity rates among the population of the federal districts of the Russian Federation was conducted based on data from 2010 to 2023.

RESULTS: An increase in overall morbidity was observed across all federal districts. The highest rates were recorded in the Northwestern Federal District, with a growth rate of 20.39% over the study period, whereas the lowest were in the North Caucasian Federal District, with a growth rate of 12.634%. In the Russian Federation, primary morbidity showed an upward trend, as evidenced by a growth coefficient of 1.046 and a growth rate of 4.601%. The highest rates of primary morbidity from 2010 to 2023 were observed in the Northwestern, Ural, and Volga Federal Districts, with growth rates of 16.869%, 16.279%, and 3.293%, respectively. The lowest primary morbidity rates were observed in the Central and Southern Federal Districts, as indicated by growth coefficients of 0.992 and 0.979 and growth rates of −0.786% and −2.126%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The analysis of the overall morbidity coefficient revealed that 62.88% of its variability across the Russian Federation was accounted for by temporal changes. The trend demonstrated an unstable upward trajectory, and the parameters of the trend model were statistically significant (MAPE = 0.97; Fcalc = 9.3169 > Fcrit = 3.9823; p = 0.006). For the primary morbidity indicator, it was found that in the Russian federation only 43.54% of its variability was explained by changes in the time parameter. The indicator showed an unstable upward trend, with statistically significant trend model parameters (MAPE = 2.24; Fcalc = 4.2417 > Fcrit = 3.9823; p = 0.004). The medium-term forecast indicates an increase in both overall and primary morbidity across all federal districts. The growth rates of overall morbidity in the majority of federal districts, as well as in the Russian Federation as a whole, exceed the corresponding rates for primary morbidity.

About the authors

Olga V. Medvedeva

Ryazan State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: medvedeva1104@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3637-9062
SPIN-code: 8808-5837

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Ryazan

Larisa I. Menshikova

Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education

Email: menshikova1807@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3034-9014
SPIN-code: 9700-6736

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

Irina M. Son

Russian Medical Academy of Continuing Professional Education

Email: sonirinami@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9309-2853
SPIN-code: 8288-6706

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

Natalya V. Chvyreva

Ryazan State Medical University

Email: nchvyreva@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1138-3900
SPIN-code: 1397-4374

MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Ryazan

Ivan N. Bolshov

Ryazan State Medical University

Email: Ivan-bolshov89@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7271-4035
SPIN-code: 9874-1020

MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Ryazan

Elvira V. Zimina

Russian University of Medicine

Email: zev@koziz.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3590-753X
SPIN-code: 4683-5052

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Average growth and lead coefficients for overall and primary morbidity indicators across the federal districts of the Russian Federation. RF, Russian Federation; CFD, Central Federal District; NWFD, Northwestern Federal District; SFD, Southern Federal District; NCFD, North Caucasian Federal District; VFD, Volga Federal District; UFD, Ural Federal District; SIBFD, Siberian Federal District; FEFD, Far Eastern Federal District; Kp, growth coefficient; Kl, lead coefficient

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