气候变化背景下西西伯利亚居民高血压发病率的预测模型
- 作者: Andronov S.V.1,2, Bogdanova E.N.1,3, Shaduyko O.M.1, Lobanov A.A.1
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隶属关系:
- Tomsk State University
- Federal Research Center of Nutrition, Biotechnology and Food Safety
- Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov
- 期: 卷 32, 编号 3 (2025)
- 页面: 160-171
- 栏目: ORIGINAL STUDY ARTICLES
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1728-0869/article/view/314579
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/humeco635354
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/HIOESZ
- ID: 314579
如何引用文章
详细
论证。高血压发病问题在高纬度地区尤为严峻,对于劳动人口工作能力的维持具有重要意义。高血压常导致长期暂时性丧失劳动能力,并显著增加致残和死亡的风险。气候变化,首要特征为气温变异性增加,其与心血管系统的健康状况呈负相关关系。
目的。在气候变化条件下,建立适用于西西伯利亚地区(Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug,YNAO 和 Tyumen Oblast) 高血压发病率的预测模型。
材料与方法。对2010—2020年YNAO和Tyumen Oblast每千人口高血压初发病率进行了动态监测。数据来源包括:Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation官方网站发布的劳动年龄人口高血压初发病率年度报告,以及Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring提供的年平均气温数据。时间序列的研究采用了迪基–富勒检验。预测是基于Box–Jenkins方法(ARIMA)进行的。预测计算在“时间序列/预测”子模块中,使用自回归整合滑动平均模型(ARIMA)完成。
结果。所构建的预测模型证实,考虑气候变化因素后,西西伯利亚北极地区居民的高血压初发率在未来5年内存在增长趋势。
结论。为在地区层面遏制高血压发病率上升趋势,有必要制定综合性预防策略,以减弱气候变化对人群健康的不利影响,促进适应性机制的稳定建立,从而保障公众健康水平。
作者简介
Sergey V. Andronov
Tomsk State University; Federal Research Center of Nutrition, Biotechnology and Food Safety
Email: sergius198010@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5616-5897
SPIN 代码: 6926-4831
MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)
俄罗斯联邦, Tomsk; MoscowElena N. Bogdanova
Tomsk State University; Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: bogdanova.en@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9610-4709
SPIN 代码: 8898-1379
MD, Cand. Sci. (Economics), Associate Professor
俄罗斯联邦, Tomsk; ArkhangelskOlga M. Shaduyko
Tomsk State University
Email: dolcezzamia@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2031-4248
SPIN 代码: 8042-6815
Dr. Sci. (History)
俄罗斯联邦, TomskAndrey A. Lobanov
Tomsk State University
Email: alobanov89@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6615-733X
SPIN 代码: 5793-4055
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine)
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