Relationship between the incidence of socially significant diseases and sanitary and ecological parameters of the environment throughout municipal entities in the Mari El Republic

BACKGROUND: There is a formal contradiction in the Republic of Mari El between the “favorable ecological situation in localities of the Republic and the above-limit morbidity rates caused by the negative impact of habitat factors.” As such, there is a need to conduct a specified quantitative examination using modern econometric approaches.

AIM: By using panel data, to identify and substantiate statistical relations between the morbidity rate of the population in municipal entities of the Mari El Republic and ecological parameters of the environment (physical and chemical and bioindication indicators).

MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study used the panel data on morbidity rates of the population, including children, adolescents, and adults, and environmental pollution across 15 municipal entities within the Mari El Republic from 2009–2019, as well as spatial data on fluctuating asymmetry for 2019 that were based on a field study and integrally reflect the environmental quality. Statistical analysis for dynamic panel data involved cointegration and modeling with a mechanism of balance adjustment, whereas that for spatial data involved nonparametric correlation analysis. All statistical analyses were conducted using the statistics packages EViews 11 and Stata 16 IC.

RESULTS: It was established that over the long term the increasing pollution level of drinking water from the distribution network and the atmosphere has a statistically significant effect (χ²=79.79; p <0.001) on the increase in figures of congenital abnormalities (malformation), deformations and chromosome breakages in children aged 0 to 14 years. Adjustment of the indicator of congenital abnormalities (malformation), deformations and chromosome breakages in children aged 0 to 14 years with a deviation from the equilibrium trajectory occurs in about 2 years. It is required to develop measures to systematically provide the population with good-quality drinking water and reduce emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere. Stable positive correlations of long-term average annual morbidity rate of the whole population and the adult population aged 18 and older being ill with malignant tumors are associated with the change in environmental quality (indicators of the fluctuating asymmetry in the impact zone).

CONCLUSION: A panel regression model was designed that explains the change in time of the indicator of congenital abnormalities (malformation), deformations and chromosome breakages in children aged 0 to 14 years within one municipal entity with the increasing pollution level of the atmosphere and drinking water. Being ill with malignant tumors is related to a complex of various stress factors (varying between the human impact and climate change).