Analysis of global terrorism in 1970–2020

BACKGROUND: In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the number of armed conflicts, terrorist attacks (TAs), and related medical and biological consequences.

AIM: To analyze global terrorism statistics covering the period from 1970 through 2020 to enhance the effectiveness of anti-terrorism activities.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study analyzes the available data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The individual risks of TA-related deaths and injuries were calculated per one million people. The data are expressed as means or medians with upper and lower quartiles (Me [Q₂₅; Q₇₅]).

RESULTS: Over the 51-year period (1970–2020), approximately 215,000 TAs were recorded globally, resulting in 498,500 fatalities and 597,800 injuries. The mean annual terrorism statistic was 4,200 TAs (3,100 [1,400; 4,800]), with 9,600 deaths (7,100 [4,400; 10,300]) and 11,700 injuries (7,600 [3,600; 15,900]). The TAs were analyzed based on the following criteria: geographical region, type, weapons, and objectives (targets). For the global population, as calculated excluding terrorists, the estimated individual risk yielded a value of 1.25×10^–6 (1.16 [0.64; 1.73]×10^–6) deaths/(person×year) and 1.71×10^–6 (1.32 [0.80; 2.28]×10^–6) injuries/(person×year). It is noteworthy that the risk is increasing.

CONCLUSION: The most common types of weapons used in TAs were explosives and firearms, which made it extremely challenging to prevent deaths and injuries. While approximately half of TAs have no medical or biological consequences, the probability of dying in a terrorist attack remains high. As terrorism cannot be completely eradicated, it is crucial to implement effective anti-terrorism measures to minimize its impact.