Modeling the impact of export restrictions on domestic market prices
- Authors: Akinfiev V.K.1
-
Affiliations:
- V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS
- Issue: No 116 (2025)
- Pages: 154-180
- Section: Control of social-economic systems
- URL: https://journal-vniispk.ru/1819-2440/article/view/307004
- ID: 307004
Cite item
Full Text
Abstract
The article considers the problem of analysis and selection of measures of state regulation of the activities of exporting companies. This problem is considered on the example of the grain industry, in particular, wheat. Grain markets, as a rule, have an oligopolistic nature. We consider two types of market participants: many exporting companies and the state, which exercises the function of the market regulator. The goal of the state is to regulate domestic prices for critically important types of products. We use an approach to modeling that takes into account the interaction of market participants and allows us to coordinate the interests of independent producers and the state. A feature of our approach is that each player chooses a strategy for its behavior in the market within the framework of a certain optimization problem, which are related to each other through common variables. A mathematical formulation of the problem under study is given and methods for its solution are proposed. The results of scenario modeling and analysis of the impact of export restriction parameters on domestic prices are presented using the example of the wheat market.
About the authors
Valery Konstantinovich Akinfiev
V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS
Email: akinf@ipu.ru
Moscow
References
- АКИНФИЕВ В.К. Два подхода к решению динамической задачи расширения мощности производства на рынке олигополии // Управление большими системами. – 2019. – Вып. 79. – С. 65–85.
- АКИНФИЕВ В.К. Модели пространственного развития инфраструктурных систем // Управление большими си-стемами. – 2021. – Вып. 91. – С. 96–119.
- БОРОДИН К.Г. Влияние экспортных ограничений на внутренний рынок экспортера // Российский внешнеэко-номический вестник. – 2019. – №12. – С. 31–39.
- БОРОДИН К.Г. Влияние экспорта на внутренний рынок страны-экспортера // Экономическая наука современ-ной России. – 2021. – №4(95). – С. 49–67.
- Единый план по достижению национальных целей раз-вития до 2030 года и на перспективу до 2036 года. – URL: http://government.ru/news/53927/.
- КРЫЛОВ Д. Продовольственная инфляция в России и мировые цены на продукты питания // Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях ЦБ РФ № 126. – Фев-раль 2024 г.
- Указ Президента РФ от 21 января 2020 г. №20 "Об утверждении Доктрины продовольственной безопасно-сти Российской Федерации". – URL: https://base.garant.ru/73438425.
- ABBOTT P.C., HURT C., TYNER W.E. What’s driving food prices in 2011? // AgEcon Search. The Open Access Agri-cultural & Applied Economics Digital Library, 2011. – P. 39.
- AKINFIEV V.K. Dynamic Capacity Expansion Problem in Competitive Markets // Proc. of the 12th Int. Conf. «Man-agement of Large-Scale System Development» (MLSD–2019). – Moscow: IEEE, 2019.
- AKTER S. The effects of food export restrictions on the do-mestic economy of exporting countries: A review // Global Food Security. – 2022. – Vol. 35. – P. 100657.
- BAFFES J., DENNIS A. Long-term drivers of food prices // World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. – 2013. – No. 6455.
- BURSTEIN A., GOPINATH G. International prices and ex-change rates // Handbook of International Economics. – Elsevier, 2014. – Vol. 4. – P. 391–451.
- ESPITIA A., ROCHA N., RUTA M. Covid-19 and food pro-tectionism: the impact of the pandemic and export re-strictions on world food markets // World Bank Policy Re-search Working Paper. – 2020. – No. 9253.
- FERRIS M., MUNSON T.S. Complementarity Problems in GAMS and the PATH Solver // Journal of Economic Dy-namics and Control. – 2000. – Vol. 24, Iss. 2. – P. 165–188.
- KALKUHL M., VON BRAUN J., TORERO M. Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy. – Springer Nature, 2016. – P. 626.
- LABORDE D., ESTRADES C., BOUET A. A global assess-ment of the economic effects of export taxes // The World Economy. – 2013. – Vol. 36, No. 10. – P. 1333–1354.
- SVANIDZE M., GÖTZ L., SEREBRENNIKOV D. The influ-ence of Russia's 2010/2011 wheat export ban on spatial market integration and transaction costs of grain markets // Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. – 2022. – Vol. 44, No. 2. – P. 1083–1099.
- UHL K.M., PEREKHOZHUK O., GLAUBEN T. Russian market power in international wheat exports: evidence from a residual demand elasticity analysis // Journal of Agricul-tural & Food Industrial Organization. – 2019. – Vol. 17, No. 2. – P. 20160026.
- UHL K. M. Russian market power in international wheat trade and implications for global food security // Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies. – 2021. – No. 97.
- ZHAI L., YUAN S., FENG Y. The economic effects of export restrictions imposed by major grain producers // Agricultural Economics/Zemědělská Ekonomika. – 2022. – Vol. 68, No. 1.
Supplementary files
