Forecasting the water inflow into the Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoirs in the second quarter of the year


Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

We consider the various methods of constructing models intended to forecast the average water inflow, in the second quarter of the year, into two reservoirs on the Yenisei river. To solve modeling problems used a new computer technology implemented in the specialized “Stochastic Modeling” software package. Independent data were employed to verify the variants of the models for the formation of variability in quarterly inflow as generated based on different algorithms. A more sophisticated and robust model for forecasting the inflow was constructed as an ensemble of partial models. Based on aggregate results of modeling, we suggest the method of constructing a forecast of the average (for the second quarter) lateral inflow into the Krasnoyarsk reservoir and the inflow into the Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoir by use of observational data accumulated by Srednesibirskoe UGMS (Weather Control and Environmental Monitoring Service), based on an ensemble of partial models. It is established that such an operation reduces the probability of forecasting errors implying an arbitrary selection of models. We constructed forecasts of the aforementioned characteristics using real-time data for 2015. It is stated that the solution of the forecasting problem can be facilitated by using additional information.

About the authors

D. A. Burakov

Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University

Author for correspondence.
Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Krasnoyarsk

I. N. Gordeev

Middle-Siberian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service, Rosgidromet, Minprirody RF

Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Krasnoyarsk

A. V. Ignatov

Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch

Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Irkutsk

O. E. Petkun

Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University

Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Krasnoyarsk

L. A. Putintsev

Middle-Siberian Administration of the Hydrometeorological Service, Rosgidromet, Minprirody RF

Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Krasnoyarsk

A. A. Chekmarev

Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch

Email: daburakov@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Irkutsk

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML

Copyright (c) 2016 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.