Vol 39, No 1 (2018)

The inventory of implemented investment projects was used as the basis for compiling a smallscale map to display the main features of industrial and transport development of the territory of post-Soviet Russia. An exceptional territorial differentiation of industrial construction is revealed, which implies primarily its overconcentration in Moscow oblast as well as in the north-west (St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast). The northern and eastern regions of the country are characterized by focal industrial development and the dominance of mining enterprises. In Asian Russia, large-scale industrial construction is allocated to Kuzbass, and Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs, but the “density” of development is small. In many areas, new enterprises are similar in their specialization to the economic profile of a given area. Signs of territorial-production integration of enterprises in the specific conditions of the Russian market are identified. The new economic conditions saw the emergence of new sectors and production facilities: development of oil and gas resources on the shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Caspian, Baltic, Pechora and Black Seas; gas liquefaction plants, and automobile assembly enterprises. Only a quarter of the new industrial enterprises are located in regional capitals. The dispersion of industries within separate regions is determined by the high proportion of extractive enterprises, the formation of special economic zones outside the regional centers, and by the low cost of land and labor in small towns and villages. The new “village” industry has a broad spectrum of specialization and is not limited to processing agricultural raw materials. Analysis of the structure of the new industrial construction did not reveal any signs of its ecologization. Two thirds of the new facilities refer to basic, environmentally “aggressive” sectors. Most of the newly built transport infrastructure facilities are specialized in satisfying the export requirements of the country’s economy, rather than in enhancing connectivity of its territory. Intensive construction of ports and pipelines leads to the concentration of anthropogenic pressure on the water areas and the coasts, in particular the Baltic, Black and Azov Seas. The resulting map reveals new foci and areas of change in the natural environment and its large-scale transformation.

This article was prepared on the basis of on a number of Bayesian probabilistic forecasts according to the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. The aim of the research is to forecast the population dynamics in Russia, Asian countries of the CIS, now referred to Central Asia, and East Asian countries from 2015 to 2095. The main research method is multifactorial simulation modeling. Consideration is given the changes in the population size of Russia as a result of the accession of Crimea and the growth of the migration inflow from the Territory of Ukraine. The forecast relies on demographic statistics (birthrates, mortality and migration exchange) in the region’s countries from 1950 to 2015. A brief review is provided for the dynamics of the dynamics of birthrate, mortality and pure migrations for separate countries of the region from the mid-20^th century to 2015, and the forecast of these indicators (according to an average scenario) into 2095. Within the entire region, six forecast scenarios are considered, including the main (average) scenario. The first scenario implies the preservation (at the level of the year 2015) of the number of births in the age cohorts of females, the second scenario includes the preservation of mortality unchanged in the age cohorts of females and males, the third scenario involves a balance of migrations at the zero level, and the fourth and fifth scenarios provide a change in the number of pure migrations, with the birthrates and mortality remaining unchanged. The sixth scenario is treated as an average scenario. The population size by the end of the forecast period varies considerably with a particular scenario, but irrespective of the forecast scenario, a significant decrease in the population size is expected in Japan, China, South Korea and Russia. The largest increase in population by 2095 is forecasted for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

A high-resolution bathymetric survey of the entire underwater slope in South Baikal was carried out for the first time by means of the multibeam echosounder. New elements were revealed in the underwater relief of the southern slope of the basin from the Kultuchnaya river to the Mysovka river, and a relevant regionalization was carried out into three areas according to the presence of ancient landforms and the intensity of the processes of their reworking, with the boundaries along the delta-front and the river fan of the Utulik and Pereemnaya. We reconstructed the formation process of the modern relief of this area of the underwater slope and determined a dominant role of the underwater-erosion processes in the formation of the modern relief, with the tectonic movements served as the “trigger” for them. The study revealed a direct correlation between the reworking of the ancient geomorphological surfaces and the occurrence of separate large underwater elevations or group ridges (remnants), canyons and linear depressions. It is determined that the pivotal role in the appearance of the modern relief of the underwater slope in the second area of extensive plano-convex (in section) and fan-shaped (in plan) delta-fronts of large rivers and debris fans enveloping the remnants. The existence of a steep underwater slope from the mouth of the Pereemnaya to the mouth of the Bol’shaya Tel’naya and of two large benches, and also the proximity of the maximum depths of the southern basin at the foot of this slope are explained by a more intense step-like lowering of this part of the lake when compared with the western part of the basin. This also accounts for the absence of large remnants in this part of the slope. The area of occurrence of lacustrine-fluvial and lacustrine-delta deposits of the Tankhoi paleobasin within the southern basin of Baikal is reconstructed. Four new hydrate-bearing structures associated with these deposits and morphologically pronounced in the vertex parts of the remnants were discovered. The morphological exploration indicators of the presence of new accumulations of gas hydrates on the underwater slopes of Baikal have been expanded.

An assessment is made of the uniqueness of modern vegetation in Prebaikalia as a biogeographical entity. It is shown that its complex structural-cenotic diversity is represented on the new universal geobotanical map of vegetation at a scale of 1:500 000. The map legend, constructed on the principles of V. B. Sochava’s multidimensional and multistage structural-dynamical classification of plant communities, displayed more than 160 cenotic subdivisions of vegetation of Prebaikalia representing its different types. An analysis is made of the development paths of vegetation for assessing its evolutionary potential. The study revealed the main stages of philocenogenesis in the Late Cainozoic. Its main directions have been revealed, which are important for understanding the characteristics of the region’s modern vegetation cover. The heterogeneity and heterochronicity of modern cenotic diversity of vegetation is shown. Emphasis is placed on the evolutionary processes of vegetation of Prebaikalia in the Holocene which can last for at least 40 thousand years. In this connection, it is proposed to change interpretation of the Holocene Optimum as an optimum for the evolution of the dark-coniferous taiga of Siberia. It is shown that the genetic linkages of the cenotic structure of modern vegetation cover in Prebaikalia are clearly pronounced via regional-typological categories of vegetation reflecting profound links of modern vegetation with natural-geographical regions where its philogenetic processes were taking place in interaction with the general evolution of the natural environment. An analysis is made of the significance of the floristic and cenotic boundaries having an important biogeographical significance. Such boundaries, on the one hand, are the footprint of the past evolutionary processes in vegetation, and in the natural environment as a whole, and, on the other, indicate the dynamical potential of possible changes in vegetation under global climate change.

Presented are the results obtained from radar profiling of the Peretolchin glacier in the Munku-Sardyk mountain range in the south of Siberia (June 2014 and May 2016) using georadar OKO-2 with the ABDL Triton antenna unit operating at the radiation frequency of 50 and 100 MHz. The ice thickness was determined from the profiles and the ice volumes from the cross-sectional areas and distances between profiles. The ice volume was calculated for the body of the Peretolchin glacier to be 0.007 ± 0.0019 km³. An analytical method was also used to determine the ice volume according to the type and area of glacier. It is established that the correlation between the glacier volume and area is expressed by a power function V = kS^p. The mean ice volume, calculated with due regard for different coefficients, was 0.0061 km³. The GlabTop model that assumes the cross-sectional form of the glacier was used to infer the ice volume: the mean volume for two cross-sections (parabolic and elliptic) was 0.0073 km³. It is found that over 110 years since the start of the investigation into the morphology of the Peretolchin glacier, it has increased twice in its length and in area, its volume has decreased by a factor of 3.7, and the lower boundary of the open part of the glacier has risen 184 meters during that period.

This paper discusses the main properties of models and model assessments forming the notion of their quality, which include the accuracy, reliability and details of the description of approximate model assessments. On the basis of taking into account the entire set of quantitative parameters of these characteristics, the notion of the measure of model quality is introduced. The main property determining the model quality is highlighted, namely the accuracy of model calculation using independent data. Approximate estimations of the values of a variable in the interval and probabilistic form are considered, which can be constructed on the basis of data on its values in the past. For probabilistic assessments of the values of the variables, it is suggested that, in addition to the measure of accuracy, the measure of informativity should be used, which is determined in terms of entropies of the corresponding probability distribution functions. In developing the algorithms for assessing the measure of quality, special attention is paid to calculating the parameters characterizing the reliability of approximate model assessments and the models themselves. The reliability is assessed in terms of the probabilities of the events occurring when the model is constructed or used. The measure of probability of the model of dependence determined at the stage of constructing it by using the learning sample is calculated as the product of two probabilities: the measure of confidence to the predictors of a dependent variable, and the measure of confidence to the operator describing a dependence of this variable on them. Recommendations are made for assessing these probabilities. In view of the stricter requirements for the reliability of predictive assessments, the algorithm is suggested for increasing it by combining into an ensemble the conditional model and unconditional probability assessments.

Data on rock falls and landslides caused by strong earthquakes in the Zhetysu Alatau, Ile Alatau, Kungei Alatau and Teriskei Alatau mountain ranges on the territory of Southeastern Kazakhstan are presented. The study revealed more than 60 large seismogenic rock falls and landslides, the volume of 25 of them varies from 10 to 100 mil. m³, and the volume of the four largest exceeds 100 mil. m³. The volume of the largest rock fall in the valley of the Ulken Almaty river in the Ile Alatau mountain range is estimated at 380 mil. m³. The highest density of seismogenic landslides was recorded in the low-mountain zone of the northern slope of the Ile Alatau range where the magnitude 9 earthquake of 1887 caused a massive formation of landslides with the volume totaling more than 400 mil. m³ and a density of 1/5 km². The proportion of landslide-affected areas is estimated at 5% of the area of their occurrence. In the mid- and high-mountain zones of Zhetysu, Ile and Kungei Alatau, the density of seismogenic rock falls varies from 1/100 to 1/50 km², and the proportion of rock fall-affected areas varies from 1 to 1.5%. It is found that seismogenic rock falls have dammed 26 lakes, and the volume of nine such lakes exceeds 10 mil. m³. The largest rock fall-affected lakes is Upper Zhasylkol in the valley of the Aganakty river in Zhetysu Alatau with the volume of 44 mil. m³. Data from earthquake catalog were used to compile the map for the recurrence frequency of earthquakes of magnitude higher than 6, capable of causing seismogenic rock falls and landslides. It is found that during the last 130 years, in Ile and Kungei Alatau such earthquakes recurred four times. It is established that earthquakes with maximum magnitude 9 are possible in the mountainous regions of Southeastern Kazakhstan.